Same poll
https://x.com/danahoule/status/1808562310514102575?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
https://x.com/danahoule/status/1808564222588039616?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
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eDems going full UNSKEW is something.
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Ok point of order, because I don’t think you know what unskewing means. That’s a reference to a guy who basically decided that republicans would have x% of the electorate and made every poll reflect that.
That is dumb.
Every single type of poll criticism isn’t unskewing. The NYT poll is predicting massive demographic shifts in several directions despite the candidates being the same. It’s weird, and it’s not isolated
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A bunch of polls show Biden performing way worse with young voters and voters of color. We’ve been discussing this off and on for months.
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It’s not just that, it’s Biden also doing better with older people as well. It would be a massive realignment. That is off. There is no world where Biden wins 65+ while losing 18-29
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That is unskewing. Multiple pollsters are getting that result and you’re dismissing it based on feelings. It’s plausible that they’re right, and Dems should be reacting accordingly.
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We really need to stop unskewing these polls. Trump is going to beat Biden in a landslide.
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No way Black voters are souring on Joe!
https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1808556654440689852?t=AppDUfKTwO_x_MmGVXAvZg&s=19
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Multi-way race has Trump 42, Biden 36. Heads up went from Trump +2 to Trump +6.
https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1808579145095348659?t=CBDrYNKIA2z3DMfQtT-K1w&s=19
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It is not. If it was pointing out and dismissing bad for Biden only sure, but there is no world where Biden wins olds and loses those less than 30 without a massive realignment in the electorate that we have no reason to suspect is happening
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Just under 50% of 25-to-34-year-olds who cast a vote opted for Le Pen, compared to just 41% of the general population and 29% of voters over 70.
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There are reasons to suspect it, you just refuse to accept that narrative as valid.
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The young demographic change - possibly due to bullshit spread by our adversaries on Tik Tok etc.
I find it hard to believe he’ll win with olds though. I interact with that demographic a lot, and even if they hate Trump, they view Biden as worse because Fox News says so.
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I think the more quiet and reserved olds skew hard Never Trump. I have conservative aunts and uncles who will vote anti-Trump no matter what, and the #1 reason is they think he’s too crass.
The young change could be because the economy sucks for most youngs, and there’s been little/no progress on stuff they care about. Could also be social media driven.
I don’t think there are going to be a lot of young Biden → Trump voters. I do think it’s very feasible there’s depressed turnout among young Biden 2020 voters and an increase in young first time voters who go to Trump.
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I see we’re back to unskewing polls. Cool, cool, cool.
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Ok so the youth moving to Trump is part of a global move from the youth towards right wing parties. I think that’s dubious on the face of it because I don’t think French/German/whatever euro country has fuck all to do with American politics, but let’s assume that it’s true and it’s been happening over the past 5 years or so.
Where are these youths in American elections? 18-29 year olds split 63-35% for dems in 2022. That is an increase from 60-36% in 2020. They haven’t shown up in any special elections, which if anything have been more Democratic.
Where is this movement? It hasn’t shown up at all so far, and the youth have, in fact, voted more democratic in 2022 than in 2020 despite the disadvantage of a presidential incumbency.
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I find it difficult to look at the trendlines of fascism & nationalist isolationism across several countries happening at around the same time, after that stuff had basically been squashed for 60 years after WW2, and just dismiss it out of hand.
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Fair, which is why I don’t and carry on into pointing out the youth in this country has voted and trended away from it.
Also describing fascism as squashed since ww2 is way oversimplified and wrong. Hell the USA supported a ton of fascism in that time period
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