Nope, still needs 3 more EVs after that if he’s losing PA and all those other states.
Yup, you’re right. Going backwards on the results of that poll, adding in order:
Michigan +5
Wisconsin +3
Georgia -1
Then the tipping point would be NC or NV
Did you read the article? They suggest PA is still the most likely tipping point state.
CN do you actually think there’s a world where Biden wins MI, WI, GA, and NC/NV but not PA? It’s just not realistic, absent some kind of weird black swannish event. Ideally you have multiple paths in case of such an event, but calling NC or NV the tipping point over PA given the universe of recent polls is not serious analysis.
https://x.com/scottwongDC/status/1809599417072456009
https://x.com/JulieNBCNews/status/1809602446873772051
Clyburn cancelled his Sunday morning appearance on Face the Nation.
If Clyburn pulls the trigger it’s all over
Wild to see quotes like this just causally scattered into campaign event reporting
Mr. Newsom’s supporters were aglow after the rally. Some said they were excited to see Mr. Newsom run for president — just not this year.
“He’s the future of the Democratic Party,” said Denise Glick, 71, of Doylestown, referring to Mr. Newsom. “Hopefully, there will still be a democracy where he can run.”
Nope, but if you’re going to look at a poll and do a ‘tipping point’ analysis like you did, I think you should do it right. Otherwise you’re just cherry picking bad data…
edit to add: The one thing I believe is that Michigan will not be won by Trump in 2024. It’s just a bluer state than it has been in the past.
Take that up with the author of the link you posted, from the pollster.
While the swing-state poll is encouraging for Biden, he still faces a narrow path to victory — a path that almost certainly goes through Pennsylvania.
The Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes make it the largest of the battleground states and the most likely “tipping point,” the state that will put either candidate over the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Without it, Biden can win Michigan and Wisconsin but would still need at least two other states — maybe three — to clinch reelection.
Biden trails by 7 percentage points in Pennsylvania, as pro-Trump forces have concentrated $8 million in attack ads there in the last month alone.
My criticism of that applies to them as well.
well, yeah, sort of but it’s way less bullshitty than saying he “ran for president” as if it’s some incontrovertible fact
I would argue PA is the single most important state in the election. When you do EC models, winning PA opens up way more paths to winning with the bare minimum or close to bare minimum number of EVs for both sides.
Calling Biden dumb for saying he did remains bullshit pvn
Anyways, does this shit work against Harris?
https://x.com/nypost/status/1809676330008531329?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
If Biden stays in Michigan goes Trump AINEC IMO. If Biden stays in Illinois is in play.
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Harris is a terrible replacement. I don’t think anyone is excited about her running. Replacing Biden is only a good idea if it means we get to replace him with the best ticket to win the election. It’s a terrible idea if we’re gonna replace him with someone because it’s their turn.
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Reminds me of this:
https://x.com/jjmccarthy09/status/1328008127074217987?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
Even a terrible replacement who can atleast speak coherent sentences, lets some of the focus back on how deranged Trump is.
But realistically, the media will probably spend all it’s time chasing every narrative the right throws up about a new candidate.
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Kamala takes the heat off and she isn’t Trump. Mission accomplished.
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