I think this is correct and it’s already eating away at the margins and will continue to make further inroads. There are the Trump supporters who will go to rallies and support him no matter what, there are the closeted supporters who will say things like “I don’t like the guy but…”, and there are in fact people who have zero interest in politics, don’t follow it, and won’t even base their decision on any of the candidates but will be influenced solely by the vibes of their friends. Throughout the entire range these people are taking cues from their near left and right to decide who to vote for and how vocal to be about it.
Our worst spot was right after the assassination attempt. The closeted supporters came fully out. Trump handled it like a boss and Biden’s brain was mush. Nobody on the left could even say otherwise. Uninformed voters were going to break for Trump in droves.
Now we’ve got Harris/Walz and Trump is fighting off the weird stigma. The closeted Trumpers have gone entirely silent. The diehard MAGA’s are choosing their spots, usually pushing the latest talking point when they think they’ve got a hit then going silent again when it falls flat.
My theory is this is why the polls are slow but changing. It takes some time for the shift in vibes to translate to a shift in support. If that’s right we’ll continue to see a shift towards Harris and by November it will be a blowout.
Mind boggling think it was only a month and a couple days ago that Biden dropped out. How quickly things can change. Guess makes me a little nervous what potentially could go down over 2 months but as this point feels way more likely to be good stuff than bad
If the dude on the roof doesn’t miss, Biden would still be our nominee and the GOP would be running DeSantis, Haley, or somebody else. I think we’d be in the doo-doo. Just goes to show, you never can tell.
HOW THE FUCK DO YOU EVEN DECAPITATE A WHALE? Actually I think Moby Dick actually does explain this.
This made me think about how many people are dead today directly as a result of trump getting into politics and the political violence that brought about. The guy at the assassination rally, Ashli with an I, the 5 or 6 Jan 6th police officers, Heather Heyer. Any others? Trump must have the highest political violence death toll amongst presidents in a long time. And thats nothing to say of the death he’s responsible for outside of political violence.
BTW: as of this afternoon the guy in my neighborhood with a big RFK Jr. sign still had not taken his sign down. I will keep you all posted.
Our boy Kyle Rittenhouse’s victims.
It’s crazy, but I’d say at least half of the GOP is wishing that Trump shooter didn’t miss. To be fair, it was probably at least 20% at the time, but half is quite a lot.
They would absolutely fucking love to have been able to sub in DeSantis, but they can’t because Trump would never step aside. Who is the GOP Nancy equivalent whose job it is to um…“persuade” him to do the right thing? Good thing that they are either non-existent or lack Pelosi’s skills.
I’m pretty sure we somehow ended up on the best timeline, but if I could peek into the others I’d love to know the answers to these two questions:
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If there was no attempt at all, does Biden still drop out? Or was that the catalyst for the pressure campaign that pushed him out? Or spurred his own realization that he was going to lose?
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What happens if the guy didn’t miss? I’d expect a shit show that puts the House Speaker debacle to shame. The party fractures without Trump, beyond that I have no idea. I’m hoping for a similar fracture if Trump is defeated in the election in embarrassing fashion.
Not among black voters, in general. So it stands to reason that, given the right catalysts, the next step of that could be a small shift in black voters.
He still does. The goal was to get him to drop out with the minimal amount of visible pressure necessary, and they slowly ramped it to until they got him to do so. If anything, the assassination attempt slowed it down.
A lot of right wing political violence in the 48-72 hours after. A huge fight over the nomination, but probably Don Jr as the nominee.
If he gets blown out in the election, we may finally see The Tragic Death of the Republican Party. (Don’t you dare say a word, riverman)
I can see a scenario where we get two Kamala terms, a lot of Boomers die, and the GOP realigns on a bunch of key issues.
Explain what you mean here by “not among black voters, in general”
R gains among Hispanic/Latino voters and young men seem notable
You can’t wait until after the election, HRC?
https://x.com/hillaryclinton/status/1828070053113205084?s=46
I guess she figures there’s a ~50% chance she’s in jail after the election
Now that they through the initial welcome tour and DNC wonder what Harris/Walz campaign tour going to look like. Imagine been a lot of fundraising focus which I imagine becomes less closer to election. Wonder if they going to send Walz on a rural PA tour or something?
has JD been seen since the donut shop?
This looks like an official event. Why is Donald Trump—a private citizen—allowed to participate and use it as a campaign photo-op?
