Those people just aren’t going to vote.
It won’t though. She’s getting MEH state polls where it matters from what I’ve seen. 
I think it’s a quantity of data thing, there so many more national polls so my money is they front run the state polls so we going to see the much better state polls in next week or two depending how many getting done
I don’t know how it’s possible for you to say this when the best pollster there is returned Trump +4 in Iowa, which was a double digit shift vs what the same pollster saw a few weeks ago with Biden as well as 4% better than Biden actually finished in the state in 2020. It sure feels like a lot of you have decided that the best way to psychologically cope with this cycle is to be as pessimistic as possible so you don’t get burned like 2016.
And that’s fine but it’s getting hard to take you guys seriously. Almost every data point out there is pointing to Trump getting crushed but still you insist on only paying attention to the bad data points even though they are of lower quality and heavily outnumbered.
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This election still feels like a flip to me. Slight edge to Trump imo, but a flip nonetheless.
At this stage of the game the state and national polling was better for the D candidate in 16 and 20.
He really really really insisted on giving all the flowers to whoever is puppeteering her lol. He really can’t wrap his head around the former DA of San Fransisco, the former AG of CA, and a former Senator from CA being legit good at politics.
Also sure seems like the reports of her being a bad boss were mostly nepo babies shocked to discover she expects her staff to have a clue what they’re doing / actually deserve the job they have.
Maybe if HRC had expected her friends to be competent I would still be a moderate establishment Democrat.
Jman is like the Rasmussen of posters in this forum. I can picture him pulling a Leslie Nielsen at the end of Airplane!, coming in here a week after Harris gets inaugurated, posting “don’t be too confident guys, I still think Trump has the edge here.”
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Biden never got -4 in Iowa and nobody has crushed Trump in a debate like we just witnessed. Also you’re pretending like the right isn’t intentionally cooking a bunch of these polls to make it seem close, which they started doing pretty aggressively before 2020.
And you’re telling on yourself saying that it feels like a Trump edge flip to you. That’s your subsconscious trying to shield you from the busted sewer line level of cognitive dissonance we all had after 2016. I get it, but let’s not pretend like you aren’t feeling the way you’re feeling for a specific reason.
You’re tilting, and I certainly understand why, but it’s still tilt.
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There’s only one IA poll that matters on that entire list, it’s Selzer and it’s a Trump +7 poll. The final result from IA in 2020? Trump +8.
Kamala got a poll this week from that pollster showing it as a Trump + 4.
oh wow I need to hear more about this
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I’m just saying I don’t trust Nate. I’m not too attached anything other than him contorting himself to justify weird shit. I agree with you that everything points to Trump getting crushed but I’m still on edge.
I’m wrong though. Looks like his model shifted way towards Kamala.
Fuck Nate I couldn’t care less what his opinion is honestly. He’s just a shitposter like us seriously. The guy did some pretty basic analysis, ran hotter than the sun and had his middle of the road analysis hit perfectly, and then monetized that well. I’m way more interested in any takes he has about the business of content creation than I am in his takes about statistics at this point. It’s not that he’s stupid it’s just that what he’s doing I can also do… and it’s a good place to start but that’s about it.
Huh not sure how I missed that. Maybe I end up being wrong, I just see a 10+ point swing in a red state from wildly not close to pretty close from the best pollster there is and figure it means we’re doing pretty well. And I’ll freely admit that the amount of looking up I did on last cycle to prove my point was basically just looking at the last Selzer poll taken before the election in 2020.
Let the record show I posted this aprox 30 minutes prior to Nate. All media inquires by DM please.
“There’s been a high volume of national polling, so this is pretty clearly some sort of debate bounce.
However, we remain lacking in high-quality state polling. The model makes inferences in the states based on national poll trends, but can err toward conservatism until it gets more state data. ”
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Agree. Trump will either win, or he will not.
But seriously the polling might be predicting something about the outcome, it might not be, we really don’t know. It does seem that the polls indicate that Harris’s prospects are headed in the right direction, but beyond that they don’t tell us much.
I’m more optimistic now that polls seem to be moving in the right direction after the initial post-debate polls. That said, I saw somewhere that Biden’s final polling average in Pennsylvania was +4.7% and he won by ~1%.
I remember doing the blue Texas and blue Florida Vince memes off polling there. So far Trump has outperformed polling both times - and there are definitely reasons to think that may not be the case this time and the opposite may be true, but she needs to be ahead by enough to overcome a similar polling miss and the EC bias to really feel comfortable.
Yeah I would like to see more about what if any changes pollsters have made since. I know we talked about them counting the “Trump!” and hangup better but I wonder if that all
The counter point to this is that 2022 polling missed the other way, and it’s far more reasonable to suspect that Trumps support is softer compared to 2020.