2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Schlongged

Yes but more than one visit. She was trying to run up a landslide win for a big mandate in terms of political capital, and iirc she barely set foot in Wisconsin down the stretch.

Haven’t we been over this before?

Bruce Springsteen doing mini-acoustic concerts in Atlanta, Philly, and other places headlining with Obama. The one in Philly is next Monday :eyes:

Even just thinking on this election if a few hours of time can generate some is TX in play stories seems fine. Not like media going to go wild over Harris having 30th rally somewhere or whatever

The results so far are not positive, but the significance of the results so far is questionable. He already updated the blog again this morning based on a surprise Clark drop that took the rural % from 13.8% to 12.9%.

NV stayed flat from 2016 → 2020 while AZ got four points bluer. They’re not the same state! Not only is this all vibes, the vibes are wrong!

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thisisfine.gif

(upscale neighborhood in south Phoenix)

Signs could be seen posted at the sites with political messaging and an attached bag of unknown white powder. The signs had messages like “DEMS LIE” and “DEMS KILL JEWS.” Another read “Never Harris,” in a reference to Democratic Presidential candidate VP Kamala Harris.

:harold:

I remember discussing it, I don’t remember a conclusion?

I guess the point here is blue people are moving to AZ too, so maybe that offsets the conservatives from Cali?

Also, a huuuuuge :harold: at people moving to (primarily) Phoenix in the midst of climate change.

Migration out of California is economic, not political. It’s expensive as fuck!

Moreover, given that this has been an ongoing process for 20-plus years, it’s crazy to look at Arizona’s transformation from solid red to light blue and think it’s in spite of emigration from its giant solid blue neighbor.

It’s just transparently fucking insane that this country allows a failed coup leader to run again, has subjected him to zero trials for the failed coup, and will allow “legal” cases about his probable future crimes to be heard by judges he appointed. Literally never want to hear another word from law fucks, ever.

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WARP SPEED

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Traflagar doing straight up fraud these days

https://x.com/swannmarcus89/status/1848774659950424571?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ


:harold:

Why are we still presenting that like it means anything? We all know there is a single person spending millions on polymarket to tilt the odds towards Trump.

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AZ is different. There’s a lot of McCain republicans who hate Trump. Biden got a big chunk of the Mormon vote last time, and this time Flake and the mayor of Mesa endorsed Kamala. I’m not concerned.

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There’s a lot of signals in this election that can make me go :harold: and Polymarket is absolutely not one of them.

Like there’s one whale piling millions of dollars onto the Trump side, and that’s most of what we’re seeing in the market, right? That’s worthless as a predictive signal.

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An analogy I just thought of is that no one should think jersey/#1 Top Shots are actually worth thousands of dollars just because dingaling keeps paying that much for them

And it goes beyond the one market manipulator. If you know an unregulated overseas market is being manipulated by one single entity, why would you ever knowingly take the opposite side on there given the risk involved? So the impact on the odds continue to snowball because of this.

yeah using the betting markets to assess candidate win% is silly, it more tracks “the feels of normies”.

Anyhow, forget about NV, that was absolutely a lost cause the second “no tax on tips” left his fat face.

He literally just posted the Polymarket nonsense. :shocked_pika: