https://x.com/ssantiagomayer/status/1848386158582972907?s=46&t=ECIc-ET7JxxiLXr8SgrQ7Q
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https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1848733477954298099?s=46&t=ECIc-ET7JxxiLXr8SgrQ7Q
https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1848733480500252776?s=46&t=ECIc-ET7JxxiLXr8SgrQ7Q
2 Likes
Certainly possible that Nevada is this year’s 2020 Florida in that it provides early, and real, indications that Trump is crushing his baseline in that state but it doesn’t translate to the swing states.
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Voted this morning. Arrived 30 minutes after polls opened. 40 minute wait. Behind me was a group of young moms with strollers, wearing red from head to toe, talking about (among other things) how excited they were to vote against Colin Allred.
I live in a Texas community that went 2-1 Trump in 2020, so huge grain of salt, but it still seemed bad for Dems.
Is this the act of someone who is Hail Marying because the Great Lakes and Southwest states look bad, or the act of someone who thinks they has this whole thing in the bag and is trying to flip a senate seat?
Agreed. My friends are melting down and can’t wait to laugh at me for being wrong in saying that I think Kamala is going to crush it. I feel overly confident for some reason though. 
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I would love to know if there even a vague estimate of what the electoral expectation is of the marginal benefit of adding a rally to a state. Like is there even data showing doing this (or any rally) improves Election Day result locally or politicians just do it because they need to be doing something with their time and it seems logical to have rallies in swing states
I think it’s more indicative of the fact that this outlier poll is garbage
I saw a TikTok the other day about how few actual Democratic voters it would actually take to swing the percentages in our favor in Texas in terms of simply getting out the vote.
I kind of wonder if the campaign saw something similar, has the funding to do it and thinks there’s actually a chance of turning Texas blue? Imagine the paths to 270 that opens up, not to mention sewing actual seeds for future elections …
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I was worried about losing NV last time over the shutdowns, but if looks like no tax on tips is what’s going to push it over the edge. Also, lots of conservatives from CA moved to NV and AZ.
My wife knows liberal nurses who are voting for Trump for no tax on overtime, so it’s easy to see the service industry going hook, line, and sinker for no tax on tips.
There is a chance, and that chance is 0%. Same with Florida 
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Yeah don’t see tx going to Harris but I could buy an argument that it’s a hypothetical GA someday so there some obligation to do the work there some during all elections especially when things seem saturated elsewhere. I mean realistically how many PA rallies do you need to have?
Yeah I mean I think as a long-term thing, it’s important for Democrats to show their faces in red states at least occasionally, show that they acknowledge that the state exists, get a little TV exposure and maybe make an impression with young voters and pre-voters, etc.
In this particular election I don’t think it’s FPS or anything to do one big event there. Of course if it turns out she loses PA by like 237 votes or something crazy, where one more rally there instead might have pushed turnout over the top, then I’m wrong, but what are the odds of that.
It’s all marketing theatre at this point anyhow, seems fine to show up in Texas for an afternoon or whatever and pretend the state isn’t an unredeemable deplorable cesspool. And heck, looks like Trump getting shot at a few times is going to contribute to him being elected President, and there’s no better place to see about getting yourself shot at than Texas. Pretty sure you have to have a gun there or gtfo.
Jon Ralston isn’t a right wing bullshitter, and there’s no way to put a positive spin on NV right now. By correlation, that means AZ looks very bad too.
Most good polling is well within the margin of historical Trump polling errors. There’s still the possibility of the shy Kamala voter, poor polling estimates of turnover, etc… But I don’t think the available information supports us being a favorite anymore.
In what way? I think Trump is acting desperate but I’m not sure Kamala’s campaign is that of a team that thinks they’re winning right now.
It correlates to Arizona, but maybe not as strongly as it has in the past due to the no tax on tips bullshit.
Ok now this is good, I wanted this and Florida a week ago with a leak that the internals looked good there, to put Trump on his heels.
Didn’t Hillary do this shit and neglect the ‘blue wall’ that was impenetrable?