And polling at the all-important 50% threshold in all three!
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We’ll see what the final statewide totals are, but some people have been using the D/R split of WA primary votes as a predictor of national trends.
WA’s ‘bloody mess’ of a primary is something else: A bellwether
“As goes Washington state, so goes the rest of the country,” says Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst for Real Clear Politics in Washington, D.C.
Really? It’s true. Precisely because our ballot is such a circus of openness, and the vote is held so late in the election cycle, Washington’s “top two” primary has become a trendsetter vote for which way the political winds are blowing.
Blue wave, or red? Most of the big shifts going back three decades have been forecast first by what happened in Washington’s quirky primary.
“You’ve got a unique thing going on, where all the candidates appear on the same ballot, no matter the party, and voters are free to choose from any of them,” Trende said. “It’s better than the polls.”
Most states have closed systems, where voters must register by party and then choose only from that party’s candidates. California has an “open” primary like Washington, but it’s held much earlier, in March. For some reason ours has been more predictive of the general election in November — both in this state and nationally.
It works like this: You add up all the votes cast in the federal races, for Democrats and Republicans, and compare them. This broad metric has been a fairly reliable forecast for which party will have an edge nationally going back to 1992.
We’re hardly a battleground state, so the results have to be judged on a curve. Trende has found that if Democrats get more than 60% of the total primary vote here, it signals a blue wave may be coming.
That’s what happened in 2018 — the party totaled 62% of the vote in our primary. Then Democrats nationally rode a “Trump resistance” vote that November to retake both the U.S. House and Senate.
If Republicans can keep Democrats down closer to 50% here, it’s red wave on the horizon. That’s what happened in the Tea Party “shellacking” of 2010. (Democrats got only 50.1% of the total Washington primary vote.) In the famed Republican revolution year of 1994, Democrats’ share here was only 45.2% — one of the only times the blue party hasn’t won a majority.
An in-between primary vote — with Democrats winning around 55% — signals probably no big change. That’s what happened in 2022, as Democrats won 56% here in August, the first sign that the much-hyped GOP red wave that year wasn’t going to roll in.
“It’s pretty uncanny how well the Washington primary works for giving the overall state of play,” Trende says. “It’s not perfect, it doesn’t always play out exactly. But it’s been a great rule of thumb guide.”
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RALLY TRIP REPORT
I knew we would be walking a bit and probably standing in line for a while, so this is how you keep the sun off your neck. Note Unstuck t-shirt (still wishing we had gone with my guillotine design!)
I left my house around 1pm, reached the parking lots at 1:45. Plenty of parking, the arena is in the stadium entertainment district so all the stadium parking lots were open and free. This is the slow-moving but steady line streaming toward the arena entrance. It’s 106 degrees.
The crowd is very diverse, black, white, hispanic, native, young, old. Probably majority female. The group I walked with from the parking lot was literally all women. T-shirts, hats, buttons. Everybody pulled out their most progressive t-shirt: Anti-trump, pro-choice, pro-lgbtq, red for ed, cat ladies for Harris, etc. Saw one shirt that said “Shut the fuck up Donny. You’re out of your element.” 
Airport-like security with metal detectors to enter the arena. Some private security, but mostly Secret Service police.
I was through security by about 2:40. General Admission was directed up some escalators to an upper-deck section. Lower sections including the floor were already filling up.
Most of the upper sections were not open, but this North side was. It was pretty much completely full by the time I got there. I was able to stand directly behind the back row so the view was fine except during standing ovations.
Speakers stated about 3:45. Early speakers included the mayors of Tempe, Mesa, and Phoenix. Reuben Gallego was pretty good tossing out the red meat and getting everybody fired up.
Mark Kelly and Gabby Giffords got a huge response and ovation. Arizona Democrats sure do love Mark and Gabby. They each spoke for 5 or 10 minutes. At some point John McCain’s name was mentioned and even he got a big cheer. I think there’s a significant streak of Dems that are pretty conservative. They are anti-trump, but they’d be perfectly happy being governed by Mark Kelly, John McCain, Jeff Flake types. They’re probably disappointed that Kelly did not get picked for VP but Tim Walz at least looks the part.
Walz started speaking at maybe 5:10 and it almost seemed like the crowd was more enthusiastic about Walz than Harris. He was definitely a big hit.
Kamala addresses the full crowd. It was fine, she repeated some of her stump lines that we’ve heard before (“I know Donald Trump’s type!”). I think the arena has a full capacity of 20,000. The crowd size was reported today as about 15,000. Possibly the biggest political gathering in the history of Arizona? She was briefly interrupted by pro-Palestine protesters. She addressed the issue quickly (“cease-fire and bring the hostages home!”) before just moving on. The protesters were in my section and were quickly extracted by security/police. They were marched right past my position; I tried but failed to capture this procession on video. 
She was done about 6:10. The mass exodus from the arena and the parking lot was unpleasant but tolerable. More Palestinian protesters were stationed at all the parking lot exits. Traffic was pretty light and I got a Wendy’s Spicy Chicken Sandwich for dinner on the way home. The End.
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https://x.com/atrupar/status/1822314027273359780?s=46
How the F is the head of Cantor Fitzergald in bed with Trump. Just disgusting. The Saudis funded 9/11.
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Thanks for the trip report. I was almost crazy enough to try to attend in Phoenix or Las Vegas from LA, but my plate has been too full.
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The New York Times reports that Trump has privately repeatedly called Kamala Harris a “bitch”
He’s got to be at least 10% to call her this at some point at one of his rallies.
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I’m hoping he slips during a debate.
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If he keeps slipping to the point where Ohio is legitimately at risk of being lost, he might try the Sorbo Protocol and ask her to pronounce a certain word.
wait wat
how did I not hear about this
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definitely possible, maybe 20:1 we get one of bitch, ■■■■ or n*****?
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Kamala, I trust you understand the assignment here. Trigger this motherfucka.
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Seems about as good as possible for any Dem campaigning for a 2024 office to do with this conflict. Just express a generic wish that it ends without any details around who concedes what to make it happen. Only thing that doesn’t piss off one constituency or another.
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I think we can now safely say that this poll was useless and told us nothing.
There was a lot of polling showing this
I don’t think so. But beside the point in any case. The idea that Trump just had a calcified +3 edge with no regard for the candidate, and that Biden was actually the strongest candidate was clearly nonsense.
Guaranteed he’ll call her nasty. He’s unhinged lately and getting worse, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he loses it with far worse. Even the private stuff is looking to be a nice drip.
Sure, in hindsight with lots of other factors going on, but that doesn’t change what the polling was.
I’m saying this poll was the equivalent of someone’s FIBA model saying that France should be favored over USA today. It was busted.
And I don’t agree that there were a bunch of high quality polls that all showed that Trump was +3 regardless of the candidate. I only saw this one posted all over.
It’s not a model, it’s a poll. Harris was never polling 2-4 points over Trump on anything. You can just as easily explain that change by Democrats being more excited to vote for her than Biden, leading to less of a nonresponse bias. None of that changes the polling from before.