Texas eliminating OSU to start the day is a good day
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Bama loss quality going up
Georgiaās best win is probably @ Tenn. Missouri and Ole Miss are just slightly better in most models but the home/away flips the difficulty significantly. Averaged across models, those teams all slot in somewhere between 15th and 20th. So they are obviously quality wins, but the degree to which thatās true is highly nonlinear and depends on perspective:
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For an average FBS team (think Illinois), sweeping would be massive given that itās about 2.5 expected losses for such a team.
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For an āaverageā Top 25 team (proxy: Oklahoma), those are still heavy lifts and big time wins, but should be u1.5 expected losses.
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For an āeliteā team (top 4? 5? 8?), theyāre still quality wins but not nearly the risk taken by playing other elite teams. Itās nonlinear and more dependent on where you draw the lines, but it should be around 0.75 expected losses for an āaverageā elite team.
Notice that if an elite team plays another elite team, thatās 0.5 expected losses by definition in the hypothetical model. So theyād clearly take the worst of it scheduling two elite opponents and a cupcake compared to an elite team playing three quality opponents that slot into the bottom half of the top 25. Games played against teams outside the top ~40 are effectively fake matches given the implied win % quickly approaches 100% as the spread rises above 20 points.
Surely you can see how this leads to useless / uninterpretable definitions of strength of schedule. In the FEI model, an average FBS team would be expected to have 6.44 losses playing Michiganās schedule (57th) and 6.55 losses playing Georgiaās schedule (54th). An elite team would be expected to have 1.34 losses playing Michiganās schedule (35th) and 0.75 losses playing Georgiaās schedule (70th). Thatās substantial given that this almost always comes down to losing one game or not. Georgia will narrow that gap after today but it doesnāt translate to strength of record unless they win.
You are looking at this logically
Just look at it like this
Committee isnāt leaving out a 12-1 SEC champ Bama that just beat Georgia who hasnāt lost in year
I understand why Texas should be in. Or FSU should be in
Itās just not going to happen.
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Like Bama goes out and wins 31-7
They are in
Alabama should absolutely be in if they win today on strength of record. The only ācloseā call should be FSU / Texas who are statistically tied on SOR if both win. If their argument is UnDeFeAtEd then that means they donāt care about strength of record in which case the teams should be Washington, Michigan, FSU, Liberty.
Texas has basically the same SOR and beat bama
FSU is at 3, higher than both
Are you talking about right now? The only thing that matters is where they stand after today if all win. Alabama is clearly behind Texas and FSU at this exact moment but they get an SOR super boost 2x multiplier attempt in an hour that would put them significantly ahead of both.
Not in my model. Texas is currently slightly ahead but after today I have them virtually tied. Texas could change slightly based on Bama result I guess.
Washington
Michigan
Alabama
Texas/FSU
*Thatās from binary win/loss only. Doesnāt include anything like MoV, game control, live win probability, retrospective power, prospective power. None of those things are really in FSUās favor.
I really donāt give a shit about this game, but it absolutely sucks that weāre going to have to listen to Ikeās try to claim this proves he was right
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If Alabama wins, Texas deserves to be in over Alabama, but
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Bama employing the bend-but-eventually-break defense I see
Fucking Hulu has crashed twice during this game
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Ah, major football games.
4th and 4, time out to think about it, commercials, come back, line up, try a hard count, timeout, commercials. 6+ minutes without a play.
Yessssss chaosss
We may actually find out who was right.
And 9 minutes with 1 play
This isnāt just major football games itās every Michigan game all year
Nah because your point is what the committee will do and my point is what is right.