What’s going on with this Bryansk thing? Initially I saw stuff about 100s is hostages then other articles say no hostages. Seems like some sort of Tom Clancy rogue faction trying to escalate to their own benefit or something
can’t tell. watching some analysis on it right now and not sure if it’s another information operation like russian legion, or something more serious.
oh putin already addressed it??? pfft yeah it’s a fake, probably of russian making
crowdsource quickly identified the guy who took responsibililty for bryansk raid. turns out he’s a russian national who was running with neonazis in germany in 2019, and it was reported that he was beating up migrants to stir up a reaction from migrants and xenophobia from the locals.
so, he’s basically a GRU plant. 
Here we go. Pretty sure we’re about to watch Russia stop being a conventional military power of note. This is going to cost them everything they’ve taken over the last 20 years + Siberia to China.
I don’t think he is a GRU plant. He opposes Putin because he didn’t turn Russia into a full Nazi ethnostate, something for which he also criticizes Ukraine.
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gru supports a lot of these characters, like neonazis, ultras, tsarists, etc. on the surface they criticize putin for not being nationalist enough, but in practice they are just a cultivated resource for some dirty work. zhirinovsky was probably the biggest such player, a more extreme sideshow, but he created that role himself. gru would not have elevated a plant to government ranks.
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i guess this is the thread for this. sorry about the nypost link.
anyways, the joke in russia is that so much gold would make smaug blush
About 30km north of Bakhmut:
oh boy. where do we start. this is a picture of the newest available technology from the russian military industrial complex which is supposed to… check notes win in a war of attrition against a mid-tier euro nation which has already been at war for a year. it’s an APC with a ship turret welded on.
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Yeah pictures like this scream “this is over.”
Obviously a lot more suffering to be done before the shooting stops but the outcome is already decided.
prigozhin seems to be predicting a southern collapse
Honestly at this point I expect to hear that the Russian military in UKR has routed pretty much every day. Every single prediction that had Russia somehow even finding their footing in this war hasn’t come true. It’s been a cluster fuck since the very beginning.
I don’t believe for a second that Russia has a second wind. I think if they had another play to make they would have made it months ago. What we’re seeing now is just old men far away from the front being told what they want to hear by multiple layers of cronies. That’s how the war started and that’s how the war grinds on. Putin doesn’t really have an exit strategy so it pretty much it just continues until the Russian military just fully collapses.
Equipment wise they’re about to be facing modern battle tanks backed up with modern artillery with whatever is left after a year of supply depletion. Those modern battle tanks and modern artillery will be using the same western NCO led playbook that conclusively beat the Russians when the Russians had a significant firepower advantage at the start of the war.
This is going to be really lopsided. Russia isn’t a country that can take major casualties among its young population without major long term political/economic ramifications either. They’re an aging society with a low birth rate and horrifying life expectancy numbers for older people and that was before they had a war where they sent meat waves at the Ukrainians. The people who just left never to return were all the young people with resources and valuable skills.
I think Russia’s future is actually insanely bleak now. Even for Russia. Those old people who were fine with Putin because he brought stability are about to pay an outrageous price for enabling him.
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Sorry to be Debbie downer, but even if they face a total military humiliation, which I think is a lot less likely than a frozen-ish conflict at least in Donbas, all they would need to do is play for time; maybe whore themselves out to China even more for better kit, and wait until 2025 when the Trump/Lake administration lifts all sanctions and declares war against Ukraine for propagating transgender Nazism.
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