thanks. i cannot say that my takes have been overall healthy,as in levelheaded in analytical sense, and helpful emotionally. the obsession is also running at 320+ days straight so far. but i do think i listened to enough predictions that turned out to be true. i currently disagree with virtually every analyst out there on some points, even with those who are more staunchly pro-ukraine. which reminds me i should enumerate those points somewhere just to remember to check them for accuracy later.
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Regardless of how things turn out will say was a memorable moment like 2-3 days into war when all the commentary was pretty grim and you had a line about āhave seen enough, the invasion is going to failā or something to that extent.
Donāt remember details but felt like something like that
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There is value in showing off your intel service work like that, because it might rob putin of the element of surprise (lol!) and potentially stop from proceeding. or it could prime a stronger negative response from the population before mobilization becomes news of the day.
butbit will be ultimately useless. LDNR mobilization was happening from the very beginning, and a shadow mobilization started a couple months later, while partial mobilization began a few months after that. and this one will start and go on to be about as successful as priors.
yeah but if mccarthy is afraid to even bring a bill to the floor it doesnāt matter if thereās a bipartisan majority supporting it
Iām going to go out on a limb here and say that not bringing up a defense spending bill isnāt something you can actually do as Speaker of the House. I mean technically you can, but youāll discover rather rapidly just how many powerful people are suckling at the DoDās tit and just how seriously they take protecting that.
The Ukraine war money will keep flowing no matter what some GOP wingnuts want. These are the bills that have been sailing through for my entire lifetime despite total partisan gridlock on literally everything else.
Also thought I read somewhere Gaetz going to be chair of an armed forces subcommittee? Not sure if that enough to stop funding regardless of what others think?
to Bidenās credit, they have been preparing for this. The omnibus did secure enough money to continue grant-based aid for at least a part of the year, and to date US help to UA has all been grant-based.
lend-lease was passed earlier in the year, but to my knowledge UA has not made use of it yet. itās there for when grant-based aid will run out.
How does lend-lease work? We loan them military equipment with the expectation of getting it back after the war?
lend-lease is structured as equipment list with a prescribed prices and quantities and delivery dates. ukraine can essentially order from the menu at any time and presumably use it right away, and itās not subject to legislative or executive approval on every item. at the end of the conflict, ukraine can either return or keep any surviving equipment and the ātotalā is adjusted accordingly. the rumor is that any destroyed equipment does not cost ukraine any money, although in practical terms it costs them in room under max totals. thereās a mechanism to forgive the final dollar cost if itās under the legislated limit.
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Soledar is just north of Bakhmut
Another front, another dam to blow?
I am surprised that the Russians didnāt blow the other one, so that makes me more skeptical of them blowing this one. Still, I donāt think any infliction of suffering is beyond the Russian army, so it is worth monitoring.
this dam was mentioned by some commentators, and they think that its smaller size, more level terrain, and winter weather likely make flooding less effective as a defensive measure. it might play a role in a retreat, but it will not decide control of a region.
so allegedly Surovikin is out, and Gerasimov is back in. as an ancient russian proverb dictates, when nothing is going right, there are always chairs on the titanic that can be rearranged.
Russia has replaced its military chief in Ukraine with a Kremlin insider, dashing calls from Moscow ultranationalists for a radical overhaul of the leadership overseeing the flagging invasion.
Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who had served as Russiaās chief of general staff for over a decade, replaces Gen. Sergei Surovikin as the head of the Russian military in Ukraine, the Defense Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday. General Surovikin is now one of General Gerasimovās three deputies, according to the statement.
Lol, I see what you did there.
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no idea if this is true yet, thereās little official fact-checking of it, and all twitter links looks like they are on bot accounts.
still, if true, this may look like a diversion on an asset between two nato countries.
ETA: Radio Free Europe is reporting on the reports
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Meaning what, exactly?
it would be an attack on NATO just like a shell or missile fire would be.
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Keep seeing a lot of stuff about Ukraine potentially getting western tanks. Like how big a deal is that from a comparative advantage standpoint?
Like would they rather have 10 western tanks or 30 of whatever they have currently?