Lots of speculation that these strikes in Iran are at drone production sites
this story looks to have proof behind it.
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Looks like Turkey isn’t quite buying it yet. They signaled they are willing to accept Finland into NATO but not Sweden. The Koran burning is a pretense anyway. Sweden refuses to extradite enemies of Erdogan.
turkey had relented on the kurds extradition, not like sweden could legally pull it off anyway. but basically us state dept offered to stop a weapons cache from going to turkey if ersogan continued to bring it up, and that was that afaihr
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Interesting mini-thread on the nature of modern great-power conflicts that we’re kinda seeing play out here (from the guy who wrote the “strategic bombing” article I’ve linked to before):
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Cliffs: Ukraine uses drones to stake out Russian positions, then keep supply and movement routes under fire to deny them fresh supplies until the positions have to be abandoned.
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a microcosm of the kherson offensive
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Seems news from Ukraine been less and less optimistic this past month or so
I guess on the bright side seems like maybe been lower frequency of missile attacks on Kyiv/etc
past month has seen the highest number of deaths among russian forces by far. they’ve surrounded but not captured bakhmut at a very high cost, advancing 1km or so in some places. if you ignore that you could say it’s bleak for ukraine, but i think it is looking more likely ukraine would go on offense in the spring/summer and recapture.
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Here’s hoping. I still don’t see how this end.
It ends when the Russians run out of men and material or Putin dies whichever comes first.
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large scale advance before the one-year anniversary is going great. goat master strategist of all time.
grotesque
I read a stat a while back that the various Russian empires have not even considered ending a war before 500K casualties incurred. So, as frequently happens when I read your analyses, I agree with you and we have a ways to go yet.
ETA: As the Russian ethnicity demographic is in a death spiral, this is Putin/Russia’s last chance to secure their historical border chokepoints. 18M men aged 18-36 (give or take). I don’t think Putin stops as demographics won’t support future actions. Now or never.
Afghan war ended way before 500K russian casualties, although with civilian Afghani casualties it did.
I don’t think Chechen wars reached 500K, although it did end with a deal with kadyrov sr, rather than defeat.
500K seems like a pretty arbitrary cutoff
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