This discussion reminds me again how planning saving for retirement remains such a weird thing to my mind after school/early career/etc being decades of short term goals and now suddenly it’s like one of the main life goals you don’t want to mess up is decades away and I’m supposed to have some educated opinion on if I want to work to x age or x+ 10 years or spend Y amount yearly in 30 years. Like obviously I know there all sorts of planning methods but at some level it requires making reasonable guesses about what life looks like in decades
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Yes they are not worth it right now, it may be correct to stay in previous position due to the nature of the cash out and losing a few months interest, it really depends on when you bought them. I wouldn’t buy new ones at this point in time
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Yeah, already have 529’s.
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Correct.
When you run out of tax-advantaged accounts you start putting the money in taxable accounts (which are still a ridiculously good deal in the era of cap gains rates + indexed ETFs).
Yeah, anyone can pay themselves any div % they want on any company stock, and they can do it quarterly or weekly or whenever.
A large fund isn’t going to have their algos mistakenly undervalue a stock for a potential fraction of a % profit for you because a dividend was paid. If a company was determined to be worth $21 yesterday, its going to be valued at 20.80 if it paid out 1% dividend today.
The inefficiency in the market has generally been seen on the high ends of valuation. We saw this at an extreme extent when GME and AMC reported earnings and what the funds were willing to risk.
This isn’t a market for finding undervalued companies with all of the collective eyes on em.
I really need to stress that value investing is really just doing work for money. It’s a hobby for me in the same way that carpentry is a hobby for some people but work for money for other people. It’s a monetized hobby which is nice I guess?
But the core thing to understand here is that you’re basically doing work. If you sit down and analyze a bunch of companies and you have the right skill set to be valuing companies it’s really the same dynamic as a pro poker player sitting at a random table. You’re going to slowly but surely win more than your share.
None of this is worth the time for Wall Street because they need every employee to generate X in revenue and our personal profits on our own small portfolio’s are way too little profit for way too much seniority/time. This is my hobby not my day job I don’t have to make all that much money to make it make sense. I probably could live with losing a little bit over time and I’ve already experienced pretty substantial swings like everyone else has I just felt a little bit more in control and slept a little bit better.
If I’m wrong I retire a few years later than I would have (still probably never), and if I’m right I retire a few years sooner (also still probably never).
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why value invest when there’s an inverse cramer EFT, at the end of the day. he’s already done all the work for you.
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Fee’s too high. Seriously. Also Cramer is unequally wrong about things. Mostly he just pumps blue chip bullshit without any critical thinking whatsoever. He’s just a sell side clown. There are more egregious examples than him if you go looking for them.
They’re like sports betting touts.
Yup. Occasionally Cramer’s recommendations sure seem to help hedge funds in general exit positions.
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Yeah that’s been a theory of mine for a while, I think we’ve both discussed it. Like to have as many ass backwards predictions as he’s had and not get canned… I think he’s like the Bag Passer in Chief.
Just the biggest stock tout. Most stock promoters that aren’t pump and dump guys I feel really truly exist to gin up demand for positions people need to get out of.
Yes, yes, that’s all well and good, but is there a meme?
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Yeah, i obviously enjoy talking this stuff too. My point was that i dont believe that dividend payouts allow for any reasonable upside potential.
We both mentioned and agreed that facebook was a very good buy at 100 and i stated that i felt you were going to crush it when you bought it. But one thing i rememebered in that thread was the intense vitriol for Facebook and the opinion that their stoxk was going to crater from there. The one thing that i really changed my opinion on since covid is that public perception plays a larger role in a stock’s valuation when you’re dealing with some many more investors - but again that leads to potentially overvaluing.
In simple terms, it feels like the “return to normal” segment of the popular bubble graph so it may not be the case that the market both undervalued Meta (disregarding the legal/AI accomplishments theve had since then) but that theyve regained some of the confidence that pushed prices back up. I dont think the high market caps are unaffected by that
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I’ll separate this out because it was maybe the most important point in there. The AI accomplishments were pretty strongly foreshadowed in earnings calls and annual reports. I know the hypothesis is that the market efficiently digests that info, but I just don’t buy it. I think some of the people who are supposed to be doing that are spending more time than they’d want anyone to know during the work day at Peter Luger’s or doing lines of coke, and I think others are probably stretched thinner than they should be and aren’t spending several hours in a row reading a company’s financials. And I don’t think AI is there yet, either.
What are everyone’s thoughts on Disney at current prices?
At $80 it’s back to 2014 levels basically. Profits have been shit since the pandemic, which makes PE ratio look like not a bargain at all (but it would be a good ratio based on 2018 or 2019 income). I think the value of their content and their brand is as strong as ever. They dropped their turd of a CEO and brought back Iger who led the company for like 15 successful years. Overall consumer weakness as people start maxing out debt could be a headwind over the next few years, at the same time the current price creates some potential a mega corp like Apple or Berkshire buys the whole company.
It is never easy to predict a bottom and I always seem to call these things too early, but I think Disney is as likely to still be on top of their industry in 50 years as almost any other blue chip company and today’s price might be something to look back on in decade as a great entry point (unless we have another mega recession in the near future and the whole market drops).
I’m not someone who advocates others buying individual stocks, but I bought some yesterday in my fun money account
I’ll let CW take this one he already did the research to talk to someone else lol. What I’ll say is that while I don’t agree with buying Disney at these levels or in this situation you are framing your thinking correctly. Disney has fallen on hard times and that very definitely is one of the major causes of stocks ending up where they need to end up for me to buy them.
If Disney was just a movie studio with theme parks, what is it worth? That’s the value I would place on it. The streaming business is just plain awful. Just license the content.
Right now the theme parks division is the only profitable division. Extraordinarily profitable, it’s floating the rest of the company.
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My kids call it “Disney Minus.” Just give up on streaming.