We’ll see. That’s a soft landing I think the powers that be can manage. But even if the opportunity presented itself right now, I’m not exactly in position to take it. I’ve been taking a series of unexpected blindside financial hits since that final table.
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you haven’t lived until you’ve poured grease down the drain without a care in the world
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Lot of cheaper places to live outside the coasts. Lot better places to play poker and telecommute.
My half of the mortgage is ~$350. And that’s after we refinanced during covid to a shorter note.
I’m sure you could find a nice spot to buy with somewhat agreeable politics if you widened your search to flyover country.
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One note about PMI, which I didn’t know until I had it… It’s tax deductible, along with the interest paid on your mortgage in a given year.
So yeah, it’s basically lighting money on fire, but you’re able to reach into the flames and pull like 20% back out before it gets incinerated.
(Note: Utility of tax deduction varies depending on your specific circumstances, etc.)
Okay, nevermind. Turns out that is over as of 2022.
What’s New
Mortgage insurance premiums. The itemized deduction for mortgage insurance premiums has expired. You can no longer claim the deduction for 2022.
We’re locked in until my fiance finishes school, and probably for another year after that. So at this point we’re probably just not buying until then, and we can figure out where to go.
Where 5/T+ NL is available? Or it’s half as expensive and 2/5 is available? But even then the upward mobility caps out. Which I guess is fine if we’re happy to stay in that area long-term and own our home.
As far as I know, the places with at least 5/T running at least a few days a week are:
California
Texas
Vegas
Phoenix, I think (but that’s a no due to climate change)
Blackhawk? Maybe? (Denver)
Chicago
DC/Baltimore
Philly
Atlantic City
Florida (but that’s a no due to climate change and Florida being Florida)
God that makes me jealous lol…
If there are big enough games we’d be open to it, even if just for 3-5 years to print money and then figure things out for next steps. Ultimately we really want that California sunshine/weather/politics.
The money is printed and handed out like candy to the ultra rich during a crisis, exactly what I want Powell to be cautious in avoiding. The rate moves we read about every day is what the Fed pays to the bankers on the cash the banks already have:
The Fed is actually losing money on these reserve payments in the exact same way SVB did:
Yes, rates banks pay each are tied to the federal reserve rate, trillions in variable rate loans are tied to it and new fixed rate loans are priced higher based on the higher opportunity cost.
But net, for loans held by consumers, this is just taking from the poor and giving to the rich. Net, for loans held by the rich, it is just moving money from one rich person to another.
A mischievous trick the Fed could pull is moving the rates up significantly faster than the rich expected so there is not enough money available for them to pay their contractual variable rates to each other and then chaos ensues. Unfortunately this is also known as a financial crisis in which money tends to get printed and handed out to the ultra rich.
The rest of this sentence, though, is… “on deposit at the regional Federal reserve.”
Fed rate goes up, interest rates go up, poor people with debt pay more money to the rich. Fed rate goes down, inflation goes up, poor people with debt rack up more debt to cover their bills, which means they’re paying more money to the rich.
The entire system favors the wealthy at the expense of the poor. Railing at this one element of it alone doesn’t make sense. Railing at the whole thing? Sure.
No, not quite. It’s influencing how much money is actually loaned which is more important than moving money from one rich person to another. It’s influencing how much money is invested on leverage into things with low returns. It’s influencing stock market valuations and taking air out of that bubble, which was also leading to a lot of crazy investments that were overheating the economy.
Sounds to me like the rich should stop doing that shit, it seems too risky.
And we should definitely stop doing this shit. SVB was the perfect opportunity to send a message to the wealthy that the bailout era was over, by making them take a fairly small haircut in a way that wouldn’t crater our whole economy. Opportunity missed.
We’re just going to have a financial crisis every 10-15 years until we decide that ripping the band aid off beats letting the moral hazard continue, or decide to put real regulations in place and enforce them (spoiler alert: it ain’t gonna be door #3).
Texas poker at the moment is about as good as it gets in the entire country. You could print playing in Austin, Dallas and Houston, but those aren’t exactly cheap places to live. Plenty of cheap places to commute from surely.
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If your plan is to create a financial crisis to redistribute America’s wealth for the better then you may want to get a vastly different batch of politicians in first, not to mention replace Powell himself.
May also want to get a different populace:
Enough with the conspiracy theories.
Rate hikes are not helping the rich. Asset values are down across the board, PE is suffering, VC is basically dead, etc etc. it’s not a fun narrative but the Fed is doing a good job.
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Yeah and we’re really hesitant to go to Texas given the women’s rights situations there. I love Austin and Houston, locally, but the state government is a mess. I suppose your thinking would be to commute to Dallas games from Oklahoma, or something? Or just live in the far out suburbs from one of those areas?
I’m not trying to create a financial crisis, I’m advocating for sound policies to address inflation. At the end of the day they had a choice between letting inflation rip and aggressively raising rates. My opinion is letting it rip was far worse for the average person and no picnic for the wealthy, but better for the wealthy than raising rates aggressively. Raising rates aggressively isn’t fun for the average person, but it’s better than the alternative.
Breaking news: the average voter is poorly informed and forms their opinion based on what the corporate media tells them, film at 11!
Asset values are down after once in a lifetime inflationary measures are stopped/reversed across the board? You don’t say…. Does it follow that you continue raising rates after a national bank run?
And yes, all else equal, it is just a fact that rate hikes go directly into the pockets of bankers/financiers, the epitome of the wealthy until tech bros came along. The entire point of the hikes is to give the banks either a nice risk free return or get higher rates if they do decide to lend it out.
Wasn’t your whole concern the other weekend after SVB drama started that rate hikes were going to wreck the banks?
Yes, rate hikes go directly into bankers pockets until they cause a financial crisis, which is not good for anybody.
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So hear me out…… if you really think your plan to give bankers more money so that everyone else is poorer and can’t afford to bid as much on food/housing is our only choice…. we should do so gradually and cautiously.
50bps!, 50bps!, Ukraine War, 75bps!, 75bps!…. banking crisis, ok only 25bps is neither gradual nor cautious, imo.
So specifically what percent of bankers do you think are wealthier now due to continued rate increases than they would have been if they took things more gradual and cautious?
Last year bankers were greatly appreciative of the money the Fed put in their pockets but didn’t celebrate or spend it because they correctly foresaw the Fed driving everybody off a cliff this year come hell or high water.
And here we are with the Fed guaranteeing every deposit in America…. but not really… but if it comes to it definitely, or is it probably,… no definitely…. please for the love of God just don’t run on your local bank!