Trump isn’t winning New Jersey FFS.
I’m all aboard the We’re Fucked Express, but we can at least be realistic.
If you think a single debate could move results to put Trump ahead in New Jersey, honestly don’t even know what to put here
Trump got 41.4% in NJ in 2020, after last night I don’t think it’s impossible we see him win NJ with like 42% with Biden and RFK chopping up the rest.
I mean if I lived in NJ I might not vote for Biden because there’s no world where it comes down to NJ so I’d rather register my disgust with the Democratic Party putting a walking corpse up as the nominee than cast a meaningless vote for him.
Watch the first 20 minutes in their entirety.
Ok what odds do you want on New Jersey? I’ll give you even odds, void if Biden drops or dies obviously
Me: it’s not impossible
You: even money?
Lol cmon
I want you to put a number on it. You don’t actually believe New Jersey is in play in any way. I won’t believe it for a damn second until you put money on it.
It’s becoming obvious with every post that you didn’t watch last night.
How about that it was the single biggest move in the political betting markets from one event that has ever happened? Does that tell you that maybe you’re underestimating how bad this was?
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Yeah I more than doubled my dumb bet money betting on presidential markets last cycle, and this is an easy opportunity
Polymarket has NJ at 85% Dem, 13% Republican, and also has a market with a 33% chance Biden drops out.
Assuming Dems always win the other 67%, Polymarket has Biden at 58% to win NJ if he stays in.
I’ll take that 58% number if you’d like
You’re in here dunking at Biden having roughly QQ vs AK equity to win New Jersey. For real?
I just misread it quickly. I’ll happily take the bet at 58% Biden wins NJ
I think Biden at 58% is +EV, but the point is that the state is not a lock. You’re in here doing your usual routine handwaving away concerns about Biden, but you didn’t even watch the debate closely and presumably didn’t see the first 20 minutes.
I mean, people who have been in Senate/Congress for 30+ years today left the door open to Biden dropping out. This is panic, but it’s panic for a damn good reason.
The state is a lock. Anyone thinking otherwise is laughably overreacting
Watch the first 20 minutes of the debate.
