Yeah, but he’s an extremely dumb hack
nate still gettin the haters confirmed furious
Cool system where everyone hates both choices “privately,” at some point it’s on the idiots voting man
It really seems like one of those things that was just invented out of thin air and now we are supposed to accept it’s the way things have always been.
I’d think that a party’s mechanisms for determining who appears on the ballot as a candidate is a non-justiciable political question. I’m sure there are hundreds of federal judges just waiting to throw the Dem candidate off the ballot though.
It’s a relatively recent development that the candidate isn’t just whoever party leadership says it is. Primaries used to be mostly informational only. 1980 was really the first primary process that looked close to what we have today.
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Where do I go to collect my prize? First train to the gulag? See you there.
Biden has been using teleprompters at small, intimate in-house fundraisers and not taking questions…
https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1808911565288034401?t=CKhdrCv4ZRCNYMiUtuic-Q&s=19
Apparently he used to take so many questions it would drag on too long, and he never used to use a prompter for these (I mean, who would?).
Lollll Joe told the governors he needs more sleep and no events after 8pm. And this guy wants four more years?
https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1808915868845224222?t=V4iLF-F_JBwKglnwn685IA&s=19
Another one (almost)…
https://twitter.com/shaneharrisnow/status/1808850508859519240?t=mmAhzc1JqPj8RYbkT8w_vw&s=19
Also, F Scott Peters
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/572447-democrats-suffer-blow-on-drug-pricing-as-3-moderates-buck-party/
I’ve seen enough. We’re watching him get pushed out in real time. He ain’t making the convention. And that’s precisely why it’s news and Trump having another pedophilia accusation almost isn’t. One of those things is a major emerging news story and the other one is the 2nd accusation of pedophilia where the first didn’t matter.
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yeah you got me there, I … pointed out that nate did baseball prospectus before he did political forecasting, good one
If you are the type of person that is looking for information in order to solidify your opinion on Biden staying/leaving with respect to win percentage, then you should absolutely listen to this podcast. It’s a series of legit, professionally done focus groups with swing voters post debate.
I’m still not seeing it. This is what should happen. It’s not what will happen. Nothing about our government in its current state functions as things should happen.
I’m probably going through the stages of grief but either way I’m currently at anger. Same as those congress people described upthread. I read the reports that Biden was fine, I saw videos of him acting fine, I enjoyed dunking on conservatives after the SOTU who couldn’t understand the competence they were witnessing out of him. I have nothing negative to say about his current administration beyond the failure to hold Trump accountable for anything. His debate performance and more specifically his inability to recover from it and the absolute bullshit excuses coming from his spokespeople is disqualifying, if not from a job performance standard for sure from an electoral standard (but also 100% from a job performance standard).
I’m imagining what his campaign will look like and the excuses he’ll continue to present and the emails promising he’ll continue to fight and if I want to join just send $20 and I know my anger is just going to get worse. Maybe it will change by election day but I can’t envision a scenario where he refuses to concede the nomination and I still go out and vote for him in November, and I live in a swing state. I realize Trump is worse in every way. Call it a privileged take, although I’m not sure it is because I’m just as fucked as anyone with the Christian theocracy and climate change that’s coming. Whatever, I don’t care. Fuck this guy so hard for standing in the way when he knows he’s not up to the job and unable to campaign for it.
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I’m with you until this part:
I’m not there yet. I still think the importance of voting against Trump overrides everything else.
I don’t envy the party right now. No matter what happens, there will be a subset of D voters that will be so angry, frustrated, alienated, etc. that they will not show up in November. If he’s replaced, there’s plenty of people who will be turned off by the chaos, the disloyalty, the disrespect shown to Kamala when they pass her over, etc.
It’s not which bloc will be bigger or madder, it’s which one will be so turned off that they won’t turn out. And that assumes they are even trying to make winning the election their highest priority.
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For the ‘I want Biden to stay in the race crowd’ — suppose we had some way of knowing for sure that Biden’s debate performance represented his baseline level of communication going forward when not using a prompter. Like let’s just assume that any press conference, future debate, and potentially four years of his 2nd term, he will perform at that level. Does that move you at all?
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So me, I guess? 
I should be clear that I don’t feel strongly about this, like, you’re looking at two bad options and you have to pick one. If you choose to drink piss lemonade over eating a shit sandwich, it’s not because you love piss.
But yeah, a big part of that calculation is the assumption that the debate performance was an outlier, we caught him at the worst possible time, and there’s the possibility that this fades from view and we forget it ever happened approaching the election. If that wasn’t the case, if SOTU Brandon is gone forever and this is what we’re getting now, then yeah lol he’s 100% gonna lose, get rid of his ass.
Along those lines, the “stop scheduling stuff after 8pm” and “it was just the travel (12 days prior) getting to him” stuff has not been encouraging!
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I mean, we can all agree Trump is the worst option, but which of these is better?
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81 year old male in cognitive decline who is obviously not up to the demands of the job, is unable to hold events (or presumably, do the job) after 8pm, is unable to perform at a high level for at least 2 weeks after global travel, can’t be counted on to reliably string together a paragraph of coherent thoughts without a teleprompter, selfish enough to still try to hold the job, and his resume includes opposition to busing and mistreatment of Anita Hill, but he’s reliably center-left.
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70 year old who can form coherent thoughts, limited by his own stupidity, conspiracy theorist, anti-vaxxer, significantly more racist and anti-semitic than the alternative but significantly less racist than Trump, significantly worse moral history than the alternative (sexual assault, heroin use) but significantly less bad moral history than Trump, actually progressive on economic issues, strong track record of fighting to protect the environment and could be counted on to do good on climate change. Occasionally likes to barbecue and eat dog, has literal brainworms.
I somewhat lean to RFK, given that if Putin attacks Poland after 8pm EST, he can actually process the information and make decisions, and I think it’s debatable whether a true progressive who’s a conspiracy theorist could do enough good on economic and environmental issues to offset the bad. I need society and the Dems in Congress to block his racism and antisemitism and conspiratorial bullshit, which sounds a hell of a lot less bad than counting on our institutions to block Trump’s fascism in a second term.
If I were a swing state voter, I’d vote for whoever has the best chance to beat Trump in my opinion. If Biden and RFK were polling within a few points of each other, I’d probably lean RFK. I have a feeling that if Biden doesn’t drop out, the polling momentum is going to pull them closer together, get RFK into a debate, and all hell could break loose.
Ok, but now that it has been over a week and Biden and his team have not scheduled him for any sort of unscripted event (press conference, townhall, etc.), you now have to adjust your priors, right? If his performance was an outlier, then just having him do a 45 min press conference where he takes questions is the clear move.
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