Hopefully all those 0s are because they never going to vote and not because they 19yo
Those were high turnout elections though… right?
They were, but it implies there’s even more out there for Trump to capture.
So if it’s a REALLY high turnout election, Trump would have the advantage.
That said, polling has been so counterintuitive lately (Trump with a 20 point lead in the under 30 crowd?) that I’m almost tempted to discount polls entirely.
That’s one way to look at it. My first impression was that Biden’s support is higher quality. People who prefer him are more likely to vote. Unless polls are controlling for likely voters they’ll be capturing Trump support that doesn’t translate to votes.
As much as “Republican voters are more reliable voters” has been a truism for basically my whole life, there is a point where we have to consider the hypothesis that Trump has so undermined faith in elections among his followers that now they won’t vote, even if they will kill cops in the Capitol.
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I think they sort of understand the deal, at least subconciously. he was seeding doubt in the results in 2020 and they turned out, he might have affected turnout in the GA senate runoff, but I think everyone knows at this point that this is just pretense
Voted once could mean voted when Trump was on the ballot and skipped midterms. Trump leads among politically disinterested or disillusioned people and Biden will have to make up the gap with people who vote more reliably.
It would be interesting to see how large each of the voted 0, 1, 2, 3 times voter groups.
If the number of respondents is any indication Biden should have this in the bag because who the fuck cares who is favored by people who never vote.
So RCP has suddenly stopped adding polls in order to keep the average number positive for Trump.
I legitimately read this too quickly and thought the title read:
Trump dozed off during his felony trial. Here’s why that’s bad for Joe Biden.
This may be the end for Biden. If there’s one constituency you don’t want to piss off, it’s the cannibals.
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Tik tok ban just passed. Seems not great.
I think that’s going to end up being much ado about nothing. Plenty of other streaming platforms everyone can move to.
Really wish I shared your confidence in that. Tiktok is massively popular and unique. No way will everyone just migrate to InstaReels or YoutubeShorts or whatever and not be majorly upset.
You all think it will actually end up banned? Can’t they just sell it to someone definitely, assuredly unrelated to current ownership wink wink nudge nudge?
ETA- also 270 days from tomorrow is … Inauguration Day so maximize time till midterms if people actually pissed.
If Joe wasn’t an idiot (he is an idiot) he would turn this into a partisan wedge issue and enjoy the largest youth vote turnout in history
For the real Trumpbot fans, WaPo gift link: How Trump has become angrier and more isolated on Truth Social
Yeah, if anyone isn’t using TikTok and thinks this isn’t a big deal, you should check it out. The platform is waaaaaaay better than the alternatives and people who use it are going to be PISSED. Count me among them.
This reeks of censorship. They don’t like a platform where anti-capitalist content that’s good can go viral, leading more people to realize how fucked up our corporate-owned democracy is.
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