It’s the only reason we won in 2020
We won in 2020 because of older black women, not young kids.
Yeah, but in 2020 people were paying way more attention at this point in time. Also they hadn’t had the RNC yet, and there may be a convention bump in there. Also Trump hadn’t survived an assassination attempt and gotten a bump from that.
Need both. Especially w the house and senate in play.
I feel like Kamala Harris might do better than an old white man with older black women.
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Hard to say. Anecdotally I’m not seeing a lot of Trump yard signs, bumper stickers, flags.
If it’s true that Republicans have made any kind of gains with minority voters, obviously that could have a significant impact here. The white boomers in the poker rooms are as brainwashed and terrified by FoxNews and facebook as ever.
One thing I haven’t noticed in previous elections are at least a couple of young women running for congress as unapologetic progressives. It looks like her district in central Phoenix (AZ-3) is only 20% white, so obviously not representative, but still…
I’m in Surprise so I see all the Trump trucks, but literally 0 yard signs for anyone, anywhere. I hope Gallego motivates some new people to vote.
Catching up on the days Kamala and holy fuck they are just dunking on Trump/Vance from all angles. I’m sure only super online folks catching it now but I’m sure Pete going to carry to Fox. She really running this campaign with zero fucks
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A fair amount of remote positions available.
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If Kamala keeps this tone up and doesn’t fall for the trap of having to be a VERY SERIOUS PERSON this is going to go really well for her.
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They can only vote once each. How much room for improvement is there?
I have no idea how well known this artist / song are, so just in case
2,1,3
My reply is the face Phil Ivey made at being offered Freddy Deeb’s shirt in the 2003 Main Event. IYKYK.
https://x.com/kamalahq/status/1816648974549369095
Vance is such a great pick (for us), he’s a weird unpopular freak who only appeals to Twitter conservatives
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Fugitive slave laws 2.0
Arizona went for Trump by 3.5 points over Hillary in 2016.
Arizona went for Biden by .3 points over Trump in 2020.
In 2022, all of the Republicans running for statewide office endorsed by Trump (Lake, Hamadeh, Masters, Finchem) lost—most by razor thin margins. A few, such as Kim Yee, who wasn’t endorsed by Trump, won.
Some of this shift is demographics (more educated and more diverse population), but I think McCain’s death in 2018 was a mover as well. His family has a machine in AZ, and a lot of influence. Cindy McCain absolutely loathes Trump, and she speaks up. Romney, with the large Mormon population, to a lesser extent, but his voice matters in big pockets of the state.
Whatever the polls say, I would predict another race in November decided by 10,000 or fewer votes, assuming Kamala’s momentum continues. It was ~10,500 in 2020.
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