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Bernie wut r u doin
And as Michael points out, “our candidate is not going to win unless …” is just not a thing you should say? Find a better way to phrase your point that doesn’t show such an unnecessary lack of confidence in your horse?
The fuck?
Shuffle him along to the old folks home with Biden, imo.
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I think we’re starting off on the wrong foot. That might be a theoretical answer, but as a practical matter you can never get 100% turn out of any group. Probably need to look at the historically best turn out for the group maybe add 10% to that, and that’s about how much extra could be counted on.
I assume there would still be time to change Vance (if he agreed and didn’t gum up process). Is that correct?
In my experience, most furniture stores do have a return policy.
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Agreed the real ceiling number is whatever Obama got +/- 5%.
Part of the gain may be turnout, not necessarily running up the margin a lot. Like maybe it goes from 92/8 to 94/6, but turnout is also 10% higher. So instead of adding say 850 votes to the margin out of 1,000 votes in that demo in an area it’s 960 off 1100.
Either way, they take a hit for it. On the front side you can hit Trump on decision making. On the back side, decent chance Vance reverts back to non-MAGA given he’ll be dead in the future MAGA party, which means he may snipe at Trump.
Still rather he stay on the ticket but it’s fine. Could also be a clusterfuck getting a quality replacement, if candidates are seeing that one predecessor was fired after a couple weeks and the other was almost hanged due to Trump’s rhetoric.
Not sure I getting ponied or not but holy shit this Harris team gets it if they bringing “many people are saying”
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Vice President Harris’s campaign on Friday depicted former President Trump as frightened to have a debate against the expected Democratic presidential nominee.
In an email with the subject line “Many People Are Saying: Donald Trump Is Scared to Debate Kamala Harris,” the campaign outlined that Trump and President Biden had [agreed to two debates], one on June 27 and the other on Sept. 10, before Biden dropped out of the race.
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I have no idea if that correlates with the impact of him as VP on the ticket, but if he makes a greater than zero improvement on our Pennsylvania odds then they should pick him.
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Almost the whole game every election cycle is turnout.
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Yeah PA is pretty close to the whole ballgame this cycle. Both sides have only really difficult paths available to win without PA. It is most likely state to be the tipping point state in the current environment, though Shapiro taking it out of play could change what ends up mathematically being the tipping point.
I haven run the numbers, but it seems like Republicans have more ways to win if they lose PA than Dems.
Shapiro is immensely popular here in Pa and has gotten a ton accomplished despite a split legislature. He’s also a rockstar when it comes to making a connection with folks on social media or on the trail. I legitimately think he’s a future POTUS, and given how important PA is in this cycle, I think he may be the best possible running mate here.
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Wut