Tell me how it’s going without telling me how it’s going
McCain Republicans elected non-Trump endorsed Republicans all over the state in 2020 and 2022. They basically ran on the same ideas, just didn’t say the quiet part out loud.
Florida is also just much more conservative than AZ. Cuban Hispanics vs. Mexican Hispanics.
The end of Kamala’s statement on Donnie and Elon:
“Trump’s entire campaign is in service of people like Elon Musk and himself - self-obsessed rich guys who will sell out the middle class and who cannot run a livestream in the year 2024.”
They’re good at this!
You really hate to see it
I very much want Donald and Elon to just start a podcast. The damage they could do to themselves together. Who wouldn’t want that for them?
You just don’t get it lefty! According to the grifters he DESTROYED the libs! Cackling CHICKENMALA could never!
Hot and/or SSC take: Harris will win AZ comfortably:
Yeah they were already going to win, but now they’re going to win even more.
Somehow the Trump interview was more of a disaster than I anticipated. How does Twitter not know how to do a Zoom call?
Possibly, but on the flip side the Nordics are routinely on top of all happiness indexes, and we are the most heathen countries in the world. Agree with the need for belonging, though probably less so with the group needing to be large/tribal.
Unhappiness is on the rise here as well, but that seems more likely to be related to the rise of social media and COVID.
This is a USA Today/Suffolk poll. 47-42 Trump, USA Today says that’s within the 4.4% margin of error.
Let’s do caveats: Only 500 likely voters, she’s losing by 5, that’s still a major uphill climb in a polarized environment. Biden actually only lost there by 3.36%, so losing there by 5 wouldn’t be awesome. We need this to be an outlier by a few points in order for us to actually be within striking range, because I don’t see her making up 5 points.
On the other hand, Rubio won there by 16.4% and DeSantis by 19.4% in 2022. So, in that context, -5 is pretty good.
Now, it wouldn’t be a late summer in an election year commonWealth poll post if I didn’t give you just a taste of that hopium, that good shit, that uncut straight into your veins “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?” stuff.
Relative to the population, the poll slightly oversamples women - keep in mind it’s a likely voter screen, so that makes sense. But racially it skews pretty hard towards the GOP.
Florida (this poll):
White 51.5% (62%)
Hispanic/Latino 26.6% (19.2%)
African-American 14.5% (13.8%)
Native American 4% (1.2%)
Asian 2.3%(0.6%)
Two or more races (1.6%)
Now, they didn’t release crosstabs (I told you this was that uncut good shit). But, if Kamala wins Hispanic/Latino and African-American voters by a wide margin and IF she drives up their turnout so that the election more closely matches the demographics of Florida and IF voter suppression doesn’t block that and IF this poll is a slight outlier and the race is a tad closer, Florida is in play.
That’s a four if parlay for Florida to be in play, but it is not impossible at this point.
Spoilers: Florida is not in play.
Left side is actually pretty accurate, during a grossly mismanaged global pandemic everybody is either trapped indoors or dead.
It’s assisted by having both abortion and weed on the ballot.
Is that the case in Florida?