But her losing by 9.4 percent is also in the margin of error
Yes there are ballot initiatives for both. We really do have decent odds for an extremely early night on election night. Florida calls their elections insanely fast.
The issue is, those things poll like 65-35 in our favor, but the same poll will have a Republican weirdo curb stomping a standard Dem. They need to run DEMS ARE FOR WEED and DEMS ARE FOR ABORTION ads, and tie the race to the ballot imitative.
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Also:
Harris +5 Wisconsin
Harris +4 Arizona
Harris TIED Georgia
Harris +2 Michigan
Nevada may be a lost cause. Those blackjack dealers really don’t want to pay taxes on their tips.
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Particularly since as long as the GOP controls the state and local politicians those two ballot initiatives are quite literally toilet paper. Doesn’t matter how you vote on those props if the GOP does some bullshit / just ignores them like they did the one that made it so that felons can vote in FL.
This is one of those situations where to make something stick you’re going to have to put people in who care at all about the will of the people.
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Not only that, if the GOP winds up with a trifecta and are crazy enough to nuke the filibuster or something, they’ll probably pass bills banning both, and the state initiatives are useless anyway.
I don’t think commonwealth’s thing about trying to tie the policies to the party does anything, there’s literally nobody that doesn’t already understand that. The people voting for legal weed/abortion while voting GOP are just trying to play pick and choose, like “oh good I might get lower taxes and fewer brown people in my neighborhood while also not having the man all up in my business with stuff I want to do personally”.
Whew those PA numbers
And here I was thinking PA was lost forever because we didn’t pick Shapiro.
I’m pretty sure if Walz was running against Shapiro for Governor of PA he would win by 5 points.
I think we have to expect that at some point the GOP will get at least slightly better with their messaging and the dems will have some mishaps.
I wonder how many normies are like “well if the ballot initiative passes that will be enough so I don’t have to vote for the commie” even though republicans have already shown they’re just going to ignore the ballot initiatives whenever they don’t like the results
wait is big daddy gonna be able to vote?
idk they really haven’t shown much ability to adapt yet, I mean I am pretty sure they have competent consultants that are telling them to do something different but trump just wants to stay laser focused on AI generated crowd sizes
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The way to think about the initiatives is what is the Trump/Harris margin for the marginal voter that would not vote but for the initiative being on the ballot.
I think it’s safe to assume that that marginal voter is going to tend to vote in favor of abortion and cannabis rights. It’s also safe to assume that that voter will be younger and less educated.
I’d assume that Biden wouldn’t really have much of a margin at all with this voter, but that Harris probably has a decent one. Certainly there are still plenty of people that will vote for abortion and cannabis rights and also pull the lever for Trump while they are there.
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yeah this was clearly the plan when karl rove got the gay marriage ballot initiatives on the ballots in a buch of states, and I am pretty sure the consensus is that it moved the needle enough
well, maybe, democrats actually need to do the messaging and connect their candidates directly to those measures, which they’ve kinda done on abortion but haven’t at all done on weed
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Yeah this is what the ads need to get at. They have to make the case that if you really want abortion or weed, you have to vote for the proposition and the Dems to enact it and not block it.
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We’ve got another intriguing Florida poll
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1823713284568330295
I think it’s time for the campaign to make a visit to Florida. It’s possibly in play, but more than that, a trip there has some huge benefits that go beyond the state of Florida. It generates news coverage that OMG the Harris/Walz campaign has so much momentum that Florida is in play, and they can take Trump’s home state??? I wonder how good their internal polling is if they think Florida is in play??? Wow we may see a huge blue wave!!!
This will piss Trump off and could trigger a new wave of unforced errors on his part. Also, they need to make sure to mention quite loudly (while explaining why a vote for Dems needs to go along with a vote for abortion or weed) that Florida voters approved of felon voting rights being restored and elected Republicans blocked it, and that is why Donald Trump can’t vote this year.
Then you might get him lashing out at Florida Republicans on top of you.
Last but not least, he’s very prone to a campaign spending error - overspending in Florida to avoid the embarrassment of losing his home state. They should follow up the visit with surrogates on the news networks talking about how embarrassing it would be for Trump to lose Florida, a state that Ron DeSantis won by 19%.
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While the former president has been widely debunked and mocked for being so out of touch with reality, his outlandish and false claims actually are part of Trump’s plan to delegitimize the 2024 election, according to Sen Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent who sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016 and 2020.
"Donald Trump may be crazy, but he’s not stupid. When he claims that ‘nobody’ showed up at a 10,000 person Harris-Walz rally in Michigan that was live-streamed and widely covered by the media, that it was all AI and that Democrats cheat all of the time, there is a method to his madness,” he said. “Clearly, and dangerously, what Trump is doing is laying the groundwork for rejecting the election results if he loses. If you can convince your supporters that thousands of people who attended a televised rally do not exist, it will not be hard to convince them that the election returns in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and elsewhere are ‘fake’ and ‘fraudulent.’
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I agree that spending some time and $$ in FL is worthwhile even if just to force Trump to play defense and maybe overreact. It’s the equivalent of the Ukraine taking Kursk even if they’re not serious about holding it.
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