I don’t think this was true before elon and it’s certainly not true anymore
Still think the message isn’t landing because a lot of people aren’t actually doing well. I will say I’ve seen a huge discrepancy in how people are doing when I’ve been in California over the last couple years and elsewhere. Seems like things are great in CA, people have lots of money to spend, etc. Actually pretty interesting traveling around different parts of the country playing poker and seeing how people are talking about politics and the economy, and trying to gauge how the economy is in each region.
I can think of something else that California has more of than other areas of the country:
Democrats
California is obviously an economic powerhouse, but tech is in a little bit of a downturn it’s not absolutely crushing it either.
You say that like I’m not a Democrat myself. I am not an expert on California politics, but my understanding is that although jungle primaries keep the party from moving very far to the left, the trifecta allows them to govern effectively. For example, they have a high minimum wage and seem to have better labor laws than most states from what I know.
While some of my issue with Biden/eDems is on policy, more of it is on actually efforting to get policy wins as opposed to saying “vote harder,” and pretending there’s a path to 60 Senate seats. That’s not an issue afaik at the California state level.
No dude. We’ve talked over and over again how the most predictive thing about how someone perceives the economy is party affiliation. Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to say the economy is good. As you move from red to purple to blue areas, people are going to talk about the economy more positively. It has little to do with economic reality. If you talk to a bunch of people who tend to be republican, they’ll tell you the economy is bad. If you talk to a bunch of LA people who tend to be democrats, they’ll tell you the economy is good.
Two things:
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I’m largely basing the CA stuff on observing people out and about spending money, places being packed, etc. Not so much on how they’re talking.
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I still disagree with your interpretation of that polling data. You’re inferring that the economy is actually good for most people, and Dems say so and Republicans lie. I think the better interpretation is that Dems mostly tell the truth and Republicans say it sucks regardless, and if you still down last time we saw it, still a lot of Dems say it’s not good.
We’re never going to agree on this, so let’s just leave it at we disagree.
It’s also the natural result of the general economy just entirely leaving the bottom 60% in the dust for decades so that investment returns can be greater than the economic growth rate. If you’re doing well in this economy things are objectively great, but there’s a reason why the problem is inequality not the economy. We’re quite a ways past the point where the inequality is doing more damage to the lower social classes than the economic growth is helping.
That’s a long term trend and not Biden’s fault in any way, but until someone does something meaningful about it running on the economy is going to be a great way to turn off the bottom half of semi reality based (read: Democrat at this point) voters pretty hard.
It’s also not an accident the blue states are doing better now than the red states. The inequality is worse in the red states where state policies were explicitly created to keep labor costs down.
The economy is awesome actually is a losing message in AZ, NM, NV, GA, WI, MI, and the vast majority of PA. It’s also awful in TX and FL, but those weren’t going to go blue anyway. And that’s why it’s a horrible idea which is why Biden has barely even tried it. He’s better at this than we are.
It’s the inequality stupid. “Income inequality is a big problem” – everyone on this board. Yes and mechanically this is why.
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Inequality has little to do with people’s perception of the economy, it’s just how you see things. You’re not wrong about it being a problem, but you’re simply projecting your belief onto others. Polling shows quite clearly polling about the economy varies a ton without inequality changing at all.
I don’t think anyone gets the haters as deranged as nate does, no matter what you think of nate you gotta admit his haters are absolutely unhinged
Silver had Hilary at 70%, Cohn had her at 85% and everyone else had her at 95%+. That last tweeter may be a hater, but they are a moron.
yeah the best part is the guy actually OVERstated nate’s assement of trump!
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I feel ill.
Godspeed.
Let’s get ready to RUMMMMBBBLLLLE!
Timothy Weah is in Atlanta and likes sucker punching people in the back of the head. One time?
This so feels like an SNL skit.
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Oh no his voice sounds shot. He’s talking way too fast. Hes coughing.
Fuck. It’s Sleepy Joe amped up on several cups of Joe.
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Scranton!
Hes talking so fast wtf
Biden looks nervous. I’ve got a baaaaaad feeling about this.