Biden may still win (and in some ways that would be hilarious), but we’re basically drawing to a 5 pt polling miss (which is of course possible). There isn’t any clear catalyst for Biden to make up ground other than dispelling concerns about his mental fitness. He can only do that if he is in fact mentally sharp.
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+10,000
Put up or shut up. If he puts up I’ll happily shut up. Thing is I think if he was going to he already would have and where we are right now is not an acceptable resolution of any kind.
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I don’t think Trump can beat a non-crazy candidate who can string coherent sentences together who’s not already loathed… But I think if we run a guy clearly unable to do the job, we can’t beat him.
Biden is down 6 points in the high quality multiway polls, and needs to win by 2.5 points to be safe. So we’re drawing to an 8.5 point polling miss, aren’t we?
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President Biden told a gathering of Democratic governors that he needs to get more sleep and work fewer hours
I know a way he could get as much sleep as he wants and drop the working hours to zero.
It starts with “re” and ends with “tire”.
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I’m just assuming we are going to get some reversion plus Trump is really bad. I’m guessing Biden will be down 3-5 pts nationally going into eDay.
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I agree with this, but surely there are some voters who would react to anything other than handing the campaign over to Harris and letting her pick her running mate as a significant act of disrespect, if not outright racism.
How this translates to actual votes gain vs lost I couldn’t guess. Conventional wisdom is that black women saved us in 2020, I’d like to see some polling that says they’re on board with an open process.
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Maybe but her previous experience was 2/3 of one term as US senator. If she didn’t check two important boxes she’d never even be near the vice presidency.
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There will also be people who will have a problem with not following a more open process, after bypassing a proper primary. Ultimately I think being up against Trump renders most of this moot once November rolls around. I’ll be annoyed if they hand ti to Harris, but I’ll definitely vote for her. I assume most people who would view her as passed over would do the same.
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I still believe the early debate was the right move strategically from the Biden team given that they were losing.
Their correct view of the race (compared to 2020) was that a) Biden’s biggest liability is the perception that he is old and feeble, b) People have forgotten the chaos and crazy of Trump.
The debate had the potential to positively change the structure of the race.
In a month you’re going to look back at this post and shake your head
Yes, and more likely than not this strategy was pursued before Biden started declining rapidly. It really is crazy how it works when you get that old. One month you’re mostly there and the next month you’re mostly not. That’s what life is like when the actuarial tables start giving you a 5-20% chance of dying in the next year every year. You just lose stuff.
I’m honestly grateful this debate happened when it happened and fuck whether it was good for Biden or not. Thanks to that debate we aren’t in this exact situation with 6-8 weeks till election day with the entire story for that news cycle being that Biden has declined massively. That would have been worse. Thanks to the timing of this debate we can shuffle him off the stage and replace him with someone who maybe doesn’t have a realistic chance of dying every time their head hits the pillow.
Another important thing to note, and this is from my wife who has spent her entire career working geriatrics, is that when people start to decline mentally they absolutely do not know it. Biden very likely has no idea that he’s extremely impaired. That’s just not how it works for anyone really.
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An open process anywhere close to on-par with a proper primary just isn’t possible, or advisable. The dems need to choose the form of the destructor and do it damn quick.
Nobody actually cares about that vs beating Trump on 7/4/2024. In a perfect world they’d run whoever polls the best (probably Gretch) or whoever is best with a knife in his hand (Pete AINEC). None of that really matters though, what matters is that we pick a new candidate, preferably one who has some track record of headlining effective political campaigns.
Ike’s the part of this you’re missing is that this isn’t a bad story that will blow over, it’s going to be the only story as long as he’s in the race. He’s cooked.
Things so obvious that even DONALD FUCKING TRUMP knows to shut up and let this train wreck unfold.
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Donald Trump hasn’t shut up at all you guys have completely wet the bed
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Like Trump said he wanted to be able to call elections when he wanted and override the constitution as well as threaten to arrest political opponents and have them face military tribunals this week.
Riverman, poison pilled by media, thinks Trump has shut up. Good god guys
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Biden could completely kill the momentum of the story by nailing a 45 min press conference. Maybe they should just do that?
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