2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Trump Says Arnold Palmer Was Hung

[LFS]

This is heartbreaking for women caught in the balance. I don’t think there’s any such thing as a silver lining when women’s lives are at stake, but I do hope this helps people realize what will happen if we don’t push back at the ballot box.

[commonWealth]

Yeah this may keep Georgia blue, which hopefully means a win and a restoration of Roe that saves more women’s lives than this costs in the short term, but it’s depressing that it’s come to this.

[McTrollson]

That’s a slow pitch right over the plate, all Dems need to do is swing away at abortion for four weeks.

[goofy]

Kamala’s Comedown

non-paywall link

The article talks a bit about the VP debate and how Walz abandoned the “these guys are weird” thing that made him so popular to begin with, before getting to the core of it:

It was apparent that the Harris campaign had backed away from its primary value-add: the promise that it would break with the politics of the past. In July, Harris proclaimed, “We are not going back,” coining a catchphrase that deftly turned the page on both Trump and Biden. But rather than exploit the range of realistic challenges to the status quo at her disposal, she has demonstrated a very narrow sense of the options before her.

In response to Republican smears casting her as America’s “border czar” responsible for a dysfunctional immigration system, Harris has pivoted rightward on the issue, promising a more restricted path for asylum seekers during a September trip to the U.S.-Mexico border. Were her campaign more confident, it would be hammering the fact that Trump and Vance inspired bomb threats that paralyzed Springfield, Ohio, by falsely accusing its Haitian residents of abducting and eating their neighbors’ pets. Instead, the Democratic response has been surprisingly muted, perhaps reflecting the same erroneous assumption Biden held as a candidate — that if voters were simply exposed to Trump’s racist behavior, they would reject him. Worse, the campaign exudes a fear that the Democrats are at a disadvantage when fighting a demagogue.

Harris’s deference to the status quo has been even more pronounced on foreign policy, which has been dominated by Israel’s grinding war in Gaza. If people on the left, and particularly young people on the left, harbored hopes that she would break with American dogma of supplying limitless support to Israel, those hopes have been dashed. She paid lip service to the need for a cease-fire and a two-state solution with Palestinians, but in the months since she took over the campaign, cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas have collapsed; Israel has detonated pager bombs across Lebanon and assassinated Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah; and the Israel Defense Forces have gone to war in Lebanon, where they’ve killed at least 1,000, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. All while the most basic requests of pro-Palestine activists, like having a Palestinian American state representative address the DNC, went ignored.

Harris’s timid approach is clearly a correction of her failed 2020 presidential campaign, which saw her alienating the Democrats’ moderate base. But despite that campaign’s flaws, it was refreshingly open to embracing paradigm-shifting policy proposals, like Medicare for All. Gone today is that desire to broaden the horizon of political possibility — less “unburdened by what has been,” to borrow another of the vice-president’s mantras, than stubbornly chained to it. If her aim now is to embody change without seeming too radical, going out of her way to praise anti-Trump Republicans like Dick Cheney for their service to the country, she has not done nearly enough on the change front to energize the non-moderate voters she also needs.

Amid the muddle of her campaign message, strategists have apparently settled on a more modest proposition for what Harris can actually deliver: a rancor-free politics without Trump. Viewers responded to the amiable tone of the debate between Vance and Walz, rewarding both candidates with higher favorability ratings. “This debate just reminds people of what politics could be like if Trump was off the scene. What it was like before he came down the escalator — and what it might be like if he’s taken away on a conveyor belt,” a Democratic strategist told New York the night of the debate. Perhaps there is a real yearning for right-wingers like Vance to be treated as legitimate political figures. But selling nostalgia for a pre-Trump world raises the question of how Harris is any different from Biden.

[Surf]

@goofy

But selling nostalgia for a pre-Trump world raises the question of how Harris is any different from Biden.

Primarily she is not on the way to a nursing home and I think she making that distinction pretty clear. Biden beat Trump once so electorally being a younger more energetic Biden doesn’t seem a horrible strategy?

[feedthabeast]

https://x.com/polymarket/status/1843308259400372541?s=46&t=pYJ2pxr9aadLbGrVNSQUPg

[LouisCyphre]

Muslim faith leaders endorse Harris

[Surf]

I think musk and his bros just recently are putting their finger on the crypto funded betting scales. Probably some value there but then having to risk getting funds locked down or whatever

[BriansHat]

Sharing polymarket odds is effectively like looking at Rasmussen for polling. Equally worthless.

[BriansHat]

Too much doom and gloom. Kamala is winning the popular vote by 5%+ and over 300 EVs.

[Jman220]

I don’t see any path to the restoration of Roe in any of our lifetimes. Even if the dems somehow captured both branches of congress and the presidency AND eliminated the legislative filibuster, the Supreme Court would just strike down any national law codifying Roe v Wade because STATES RIGHTS11111

[Danspartan]

All 3 branches includes SCOTUS?

[Jman220]

Sorry, I meant both houses of congress + presidency.

[L.Washington]

If they had that much power and went that far they would simply pack the court or neuter it in some other way.

[BriansHat]

https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1843321983607640147?s=46&t=ECIc-ET7JxxiLXr8SgrQ7Q

[ConAir]

Yeah, if she makes “the same erroneous assumption” that Biden did that seems to augur well for her electoral chances.

[Surf]

I can’t remember, where do these numbers come from? Also when do these votes get added into the counts announced on election night?

[commonWealth]

I am probably a Kamala buyer at 40%. I think some whales (Elon?) are moving the market. I don’t think this current move is necessarily in line with polling or anything.

[BriansHat]

I legitimately don’t trust polymarket. It’s run by RWNJs and crypto bros. Their betting lines on many issues do not reflect the real world.

PI is also right leaning, but at least had reputable backing and the limits mean you can’t make much off it. But even PI had free money available after the 2020 election because of how much it’s dominated by right leaning users.

[BriansHat]

@BriansHat

Too much doom and gloom. Kamala is winning the popular vote by 5%+ and over 300 EVs.

Like this isn’t me being an overly optimistic cheerleader. I truly believe this is the state of the race, and I would put money on it if a legitimate site reflected the type of odds and modeling that polymarket is right now. As I would assume my believed outcome would come with some longer odds.