I hope the better indicators are the unprecedented numbers of newly registered voters and overall enthusiasm. Maybe that’s not adequately captured in the polling models.
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Yeah this is what I’m saying it feels numbers are so wild back and forth. I don’t know much about polling are most these polls getting similar raw data and then cooking it differently?
Regarding Quinnipiac poll. It is at least also showing a shift to Kamala.
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1829230245276225817?s=46&t=ECIc-ET7JxxiLXr8SgrQ7Q
Man I just can’t do it with sweating poles yet
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I can’t take two months of hyperventilating over every poll that doesn’t have Harris 4+ points ahead dude
Yeah, I’d go with the law of large numbers instead of individual polls. It’s looking close, but good so far, based on 538’s average
N8 has Kamala gaining nationally but trailing in his model. Fuck off bro.
Feels like he trying some fancy play with the convention
yeah he said the model assumes a convention bump so if she got the bump ahead of the convention the model will ding her. this is just noise and will smooth out over time
Isn’t it some kind of known thing that Harris would need to be >+4 nationally to win the DEI Electoral College?
I guess it’s something like, in 2020 the tipping point state (WI) that put Biden over 270 ran 3.5 points behind the national vote? In 2016 it was 3 points off. idk how you predict it in advance.
I thought I remember something about how Rs could actually plausibly win the popular vote and lose the election this cycle but don’t remember why.
I thought I read somewhere that the margin needed to win had come down since 2020, but can’t recall the source.
My source is just making shit up from memory so hopefully I’m wrong.
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1829273817149264280?s=46&t=ECIc-ET7JxxiLXr8SgrQ7Q
WI not gonna be 3 points behind this year
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He’s transparently shared that the model expects a convention bump and adjusts for it.
2012 Obama could have lost the national popular vote and still won the EC based on tipping point state.
Going to be something if getting Trump on the ropes is what pushes country to universal health care
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CNN —
[Donald Trump] said Thursday he will implement a policy as president that would pay for [in vitro fertilization treatments], without specifying how the treatments would be paid for.
“I’m announcing today in a major statement that under the Trump administration, your government will pay for, or your insurance company will be mandated to pay for, all costs associated with IVF treatment,” the former president said at a campaign event in Potterville, Michigan.
I’ve heard it’s less than that this year but I haven’t heard how that is determined. Is it based on which states are in play? Idk. Anyway I think Nate said it was probably 2.5% this year.
Just drove by the Suffolk law school today.