NH almost certainly isn’t the tipping point state but it also almost certainly isn’t a “lost cause” either. Trump’s odds of winning NH are probably close to Harris’s odds of winning NC.
Man I am so so scarred from 2020 and all the optimism about the Senate seats we could win and sending all this money to red states (Jaime Harrison in SC! Theresa Greenfield in IA! Steve Bullock in MT! Sara Gideon in ME! Amy McGrath in KY! Cal Cunningham in NC!) just to watch our candidates there get absolutely fucking wafflecrushed, to the point that I absolutely cannot fathom taking TX no matter what polls say or how much money Allred raises. But at least we did flip both GA seats, that was satisfying.
edit: I mean Susan fucking Collins won re-election by nine in Maine, good lord could you get more depressing than that
If that’s the case, then he should be contesting NH because he could win and not for this reason:
did you read your own post? dems did a bunch of work and managed to get two wins out of a group of what, like 15 or so? That seems pretty fucking good, people probably thought those were all like 5% shots at best!
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Yes exactly this. I’m just not letting myself fall for this shit again.
Doesn’t necessarily mean these states going to be won any given election cycle but feels like you gotta try or else going to be tough to ever have GA type result
If you have a money advantage, which Democrats have always had vs Trump because he steals most of what he raises, you want to spread the map as far as you can I’m pretty sure. There’s a finite amount of money you can spend before you hit a very real wall of diminishing returns even in big markets (they just have a much higher number associated with reaching that wall of diminishing returns). We were literally always going to spend every cent of that in all of the blue wall states, GA, AZ, NV, and NC.
So knowing that there’s a pool of money left over after that’s been paid for and the Democratic pile is much larger than the GOP pile. Their first choice in reconciling this situation was to unilaterally pull out of NH. Probably because with the proximity to Boston it’s expensive for the number of electoral votes it gives you if you even win there.
I think the Democrats should for sure target Texas and Florida as their two totally unnecessary reach plays. Mostly because both of those states are within a rules change or two of being purple and the state/local level election wins help that happen. It’s a good future investment + Ted Cruz is the kind of candidate people vote a straight red ticket except for him on and Florida has weed and abortion on the ballot after the GOP essentially ruined the state… which is becoming tough to ignore in September 2024 as people try and fail to renew almost any kind of insurance policy in the state.
Do I think we’re winning either one for POTUS? No lol. Florida is way more likely than TX and that’s mostly because of the aforementioned ruining of the state and popular ballot initiatives.
I think it’s a good idea to water both those state Democratic parties with a meaningful amount of money. It’ll help next time worst case and DJT is the kind of idiot who might actually invest a ton of money in FL instead of GA because we spent a bunch of money in FL and he saw ads everywhere.
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You think DJT is involved in this kind of granular decision? I doubt he is.
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I think DJT is capable of getting insanely abusive with staff and ordering them to make big ad buys in Florida yes. Especially since he is physically in Florida all the time. The Lincoln Project already got him to buy local ads on Fox News to block them out. I think you could easily extend that to billboards all over the place and real ad spending.
And actually I think DJT is involved at a microscopic level with spending on his campaign. I think controlling the outgoing expenditures is NEVER something he would allow anyone else to have. I guarantee you he’s making every single person who needs campaign money come grovel for it, and is telling people no who shouldn’t probably be told no right and left.
This is how he was in the WH and how he was when he ran his own companies. There is 0.0 chance he’s anything but a more deranged version of that now.
What I’m saying is hold some (and some means 1-2) big rallies in Florida 
. We can get this idiot to burn serious energy on a state nobody on this site thinks we have a realistic shot of winning. And he absolutely isn’t guaranteed to get to the full maximum spend measure in all the states we are. He really might move resources from GA to FL after what happened last time purely out of spite.
I love a GTO line and all but Trump is a mega fish.
At least get some ads on The Gorilla Channel…
NC was very close and Maine we were definitely correct to pour money into. I could make a strong case for MT as well, given that Tester has won it and Bullock had great name recognition. We (Dems) were suckers on KY, SC, and probably IA. Can’t help but wonder if we took all the KY, SC, IA money and poured it into NC and ME, do we pull one or both of those out? Maybe NC…
This is a testament to how little attention voters pay and how much they base on a person’s brand/reputation over time. Collins has always been a moderate, hence, she must still be a moderate!
Dems should be microtargeting ads in Florida based on homeowners insurance. Like Kamala and Tim should cut ads about stuff they’re going to do federally to help the situation. Premiums there are up 50% overall, the state-backed one is up 14%. It’s spiraling out of control and it should be addressable with a federal program - something like, if your primary residence is worth less than $1M and you’re not within X miles (3? 5? 10?) of a tidal body of water, we’ll do a federal plan to cover you. Should of course do a similar program for other hurricane-zone people who aren’t right on the coast, Californians who don’t live near high risk wildfire areas, etc.
This is an issue that is costing people thousands of dollars a year, the GOP has been asleep at the wheel on it in Florida, Dems have been warning about it, and this is the type of shit that creates single issue voters. Maybe you get a situation where Murcarsel-Powell runs a few points ahead due to this issue and wins, maybe you get a situation where you prime the voters for a Dem governor in 2026 and there’s a meaningful impact on a fair election there in 2028.
I don’t know if there’s a similar play in Texas over the power grid situation, but perhaps? Or just over the general wingnuttery?
Do I think Donald Trump has the potential to get involved in telling his campaign to spend money in Florida, making a colossal political mistake in order to make sure he doesn’t suffer the embarrassment of losing his adopted home state? Yes, yes I do.
I’m sure that whoever is in charge here answers to him and is either grifting on his behalf or a grifter who got the job to siphon off funds. Either way, there won’t be enough pushback to stop Trump from buying ads in Florida if he gets triggered into it.
Yes! And leak that we have some internals that point Florida in play. It’s a great vibes news story, too. Feeds into creating more momentum.
Yeah Dems should be running exploitative lines all the time against this guy.
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he’s not until he wants to be, and then he absolutely is
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https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/03/politics/jimmy-mccain-decries-trump-arlington-appearance
smash that big WE GOT HIM button fam
“It just blows me away,” McCain, who has served in the military for 17 years, told CNN.
I saw this story and was wondering how McCain could still be a 1Lt after 17 years, then I noticed the photo (from 2018) shows him wearing the stripes of a sergeant.
He’s had an interesting career trajectory:
James McCain enlisted in the United States Marine Corps at the age of 17 in 2006. He served with 1st Battalion 1st marines as an infantry rifleman in Iraq during the surge of 2007. After leaving the USMC he received his bachelors from Arizona State University and rejoined the Arizona Army National Guard. He served in Afghanistan in 2014 as a squad leader in the infantry and oversaw the Guardian Angel missions around Kabul. After returning home he received his master’s degree in history from Trinity College Dublin. James currently has been accepted to attend OCS and become an officer in U.S. Army Intelligence.
I didn’t even know you were allowed to switch from the marines to the army. 
In a truly shocking development, stories of Venezeulan gangs taking over apartment buildings in Colorado seem to be bullshit. Even according to Fox News (gee, wonder if their hosts will follow up on the fact that the right wing fear machine was full of shit again?)
By the way, the headline shortening is more bullshit… The end of the Fox News headline is Have… not taken over. The other headline is just ignoring the answer to the question.
In other news, the property management company that says that the gang took over might have an ulterior motive, maybe just maybe. And whoa boy, it’s a doozy. Spoiler alert: the slumlord owner was facing criminal charges related to the properties when he came up with the gang story.
“The city has documented substantial, longstanding unresolved code violations and other poor conditions at the property for the last few years,” said Ryan Luby, a spokesman for the City of Aurora, referring to the apartment complex at 1568 Nome St. near Colfax and Peoria.
The city said the property management company, CBZ, has failed to address the violations and has been uncooperative.
On Tuesday, Denver7 found mountains of trash piled up at the property, which has been called by multiple names by tenants and community members, including the Fitzsimons Place Apartments and the Bahamas Apartments.
Shayra Caez, a tenant at the apartment complex, said residents chipped in and hired a company to remove some of the trash.
Caez said the property manager is nowhere to be found.
“We’ve been trying to get in touch with the manager,” she said. “He quit and we have no manager.”
She said not only has the property management let the trash pile up, they’ve let the complex fall apart.
CBZ officials admitted its property management team has not been on site and claimed a notorious Venezuelan gang known as Tren de Aragua is the reason. A public relations firm the company hired sent Denver7 a statement it said was from a property investor who wanted to remain anonymous for safety reasons.
But crime at the property is actually down year over year.
APD investigated 41 crimes at the property in 2022, 84 crimes in 2023, and 66 crimes in 2024 through July 31, according to Luby.
Getting back to the asshole owner… He (Zev Baumgarten) was facing trial for neglecting the property, and this gang story seems to be his defense. But it gets even better. According to Wikipedia, Tren de Aragua has been operating in the US since 2023, starting in Chicago. Border Patrol statements and federal data shows no evidence of them in the US before 2023.
So, surely those issues at his complexes only started last year? Lol no.
According to records from the Aurora Police Department, Baumgarten is the owner of an apartment complex at 1568 Nome Street, Fitzsimons Place, that was shut down by the city on August 13 for outstanding code violations dating back to 2020, including rat infestations, backed-up sewage and pile-ups of trash. Hundreds of residents were evicted in the process.
And according to the city, records of health and safety code violations go back even further to 2019.
After some research it does appear possible that Venezuelan migrants, note: not gang members just regular peaceful migrants, were squatting in vacant units in the property because paying tenants had moved out since the place was such a fucking dump.
Last but not least, three members of the city council are backing up the landlord’s story: Danielle Jurinsky, Stephanie Hancock, and Steve Sundberg. The city council is 6 R, 1 I, 3 D. Obviously these three are R’s, and not surprisingly they’re lunatic R’s. Sundberg made a bunch of racist videos. Hancock has been lambasted by BLM protesters for calling them terrorists and backing police who shot an unarmed black men with his hands raised in the air, and she was big mad that protesters don’t stand for the pledge of allegiance.The victim’s father: “She’s a real-life devil,” Lewis’s father, Robert Lewis Jr., told Westword after the vote. “Just sitting on her throne in hell, betraying her own people.” Jurinsky has been involved in a bunch of controversy, but it’s hard to tell whether she’s the victim or playing the victim. A political opponent investigated her for child sex abuse, but then lost a $3M suit to Jurinsky when a court found the claims to be without substance. Big time normal energy all around in Aurora.
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Clearly it’s because they knew the cops weren’t onto them and moved to Chicago! Chessmate libtard!
That depends on whether the 2022/23 figures are for the full year or also only until July 31st.
Thank god the media is very focused on the difference between IVF and IUI, and what exact titles Tim Walz had for a couple different positions decades ago, instead of investigating the other candidate claiming armed gangs are taking over buildings in America