Daddy Thiel must be paying him by the word.
Legit think Nate is playing pot odds, banking on Trump winning so he can crow about how he was the only one who called it. Who fucking cares about this nerd shit, I do not care at all who is the best at aggregating polling data.
The big post today pretty much lays out he very aware of and weighs the potential impacts to himself of what he predicts in different scenarios to point considered not weighing in this election because could hurt his brand so I would highly suspect it impacts how he decides to model
“ And there was some reputational risk: if our forecast was 80/20 on Election Day and the 20 percent came up — as 20 percent probabilities have an uncanny knack for doing 20 percent of the time — it was going to negatively affect my life. Not to the point where I was putting my whole reputational bankroll on the line — but tangibly, especially in a world where many people [don’t understand the nature of probabilistic forecasts (And I had a good alternative: [write my book]and ride off into the sunset.
lol
I guess just digging in your heels and never acknowledging new data is preferable???
Im not worried about the model it’s the tone he uses and what he chooses to emphasize in his commentary. I think like mctrollson points out he wanted to pump out as much bullish Trump content as he could when the numbers allowed him plausible cover in order to give him more stuff to play “told you so” with after the election if turns out that way.
ETA- I think he also internally sad Biden dropped because he was hoping to have a easy prediction and now is worried he will be on the wrong side of a 60/40 one way or other and career get dented
I kept hearing that debate clip about the dogs and I knew it was reminding me of something…
A post was merged into an existing topic: Lol Mark Robinson: Major Scandal about to drop in NC Gubernatorial Race
I knew NC was getting more cosmopolitan, but I honestly thought it wouldn’t be winnable for Dems until 2028.
Uhhhh probably fools gold here
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1836875827348156717?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
Not falling for this but if that somehow happened it would feel better than I imagine heroin feels
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I would assume that this is an outlier and it’s Cruz +3 or something.
Most likely.
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you do not, under any circumstances, gotta hand it to matt drudge
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Nate has Harris officially ahead today