It’s clear we’re not going to get a choice, it’s Biden or Trump. But I’m tuned out at this point until Election Day, where I’ll cast a meaningless vote. Trump will win easily, we’ll get crushed down ballot, and then I’m out of remotely paying attention to politics ever again.
@riverman probably time to start the tragic death of the democratic party thread.
He did tons of interviews after that. Y’all are completely overreacting
There’s only so many "most important election of our lifetime"s you can win by pointing out how bad your opponent is and this time around Trump isn’t feeding thousands of people a day to COVID.
Did you watch the first 20 minutes of the debate yet?
I’ll take that as a no on watching the thing that you’re telling us we’re completely overreacting to.
As a little context, all four of those results are electoral college wins for Donald Trump, and those average out to a net gain for Trump.
That’s shit you’re making up about the EC.
Feel free to use some sort of actual data to make any sort of point. The disaster you were so sure happened hasn’t shown up in any poll.
Anyways, actual data that would change my mind (a non exhaustive list):
Taking a massive risk to replace Biden without two of those things is a bad idea. Without either is just dumb.
Much like the inflation debate, I’m basing my position on things that can be measured. I’ll change my position when the data supports it.
Biden won by 4.45% and squeaked out the election by the skin of his teeth in the swing states. He needs at least a 4% popular vote win to win the EC. This is common knowledge among people who follow politics.
Your source is wrong/lying about those polls. Data For Progress went from Biden +1 to Trump +3, so that’s a 4 point swing towards Trump. The Leger poll went from Biden +2 to Trump +8. That’s 10 points towards Trump.
https://x.com/austinahlman/status/1807109189489013136
Nice work as usual!
Let’s dig a little bit deeper here. This is a Trump +3 with 7% undecided poll for Biden.
Literally nobody here is doing worse, first of all. Harris is doing exactly the same. Buttigieg, Newsom, Klobuchar, Shapiro, and Pritzker are all at Trump +3, but with 9% to 12% undecided - more room to improve. Booker and Whitmer are at Trump +2 with 10% undecided, a closer race and more room to improve.
Then you have to factor in the opportunity to put a fully functional candidate up against Trump in the next debate, one who won’t pivot from abortion to Laken Riley and who will actually use their full 2 minutes on the topic of abortion (and everything else).
Looks like that tweet was wrong, still not seeing any collapse.
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1807104198833512481?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
What the exact number is for EC win is heavily affected by turnout in blue and red states. You cannot just point to 2020 and say that’s the exact minimum. That’s just wrong
You also have to factor in negatives, like how none of these people have held up to the scrutiny of a presidential election or the damage the cohesiveness of the caucus could be because they don’t like your replacement.
Taking Biden out is a massive risk for many reasons. You have to have similarly sized benefits to support it and it’s simply not there
Given how steady the state of politics has been since 2016, it’s extremely unlikely we will see a ‘Biden collapse’. I also think there’s very little utility in polling candidates with near zero name recognition as a predictor of how they would actually do versus Trump in a general. It’s really hard to predict whether a brokered candidate would rate to do better or worse than Biden. I think the most probable scenario is that his consistent 1-2 pt deficit calcifies into a 3-4 pt deficit, and then we just pray for polling error.
I just think it’s on Biden to understand that we all deserve better than this. We need a leader that can put together a sentence, and compares favorably to Trump in every way possible.
You also have to factor in the upside a candidate would have in being viewed as a fresh face that is giving the country a way out of this mess versus being someone that is now forced to lie to everyone that it is good, actually, to continue with this farce.
Show me evidence of that upside. I don’t think it exists frankly, for basically the same reasons parlay talks about tbh
It’s literally one debate. Biden has done a great job as president by any reasonable measure. He’s done plenty of other interviews that show he’s perfectly capable of communicating well
Not the one where you ask Americans how he’s done, and at the end of the day they get to decide if he gets another term.
Interesting convo with my father last night. He thought both candidates sucked in the debate, hates them both, seems to lean RFK. He said if the Democrats switched he’d consider voting for their new candidate. His thoughts on them:
Harris: Hellll no, too incompetent, hasn’t accomplished anything, totally unqualified.
Buttigieg: Hell no, awful as Secretary of Transportation, “hasn’t accomplished anything in that job” and unqualified for even that job.
Whitmer: Nope, way too liberal.
Newsom: Would vote for him, but doesn’t like him.
Shapiro: Likes him a lot, would vote for him
My follow up on Buttigieg was, “Can you name any prior Sec of Transportation and something they accomplished that was good?” He could not, but Pete still sucks at it. Blames him for train derailments, airlines running big delays, union strikes, and the port of LA being backed up in 2021 or whenever that was. Obviously most of that isn’t even his purview, but good luck overriding the programming from The Five on Fox News on Mayor Pete.
Yeah, I saw him crush that casual Super Bowl interview too. Was smart of his advisors to use that platform to show off his cognitive abilities in front of 50 million people.
In Biden’s current diminished state, he is a terrible communicator.