lol, lot going on here
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Nate Silver says the bias is 2 points, so Biden is favored at +2, but I assume that’s 51/49.
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1807080583941570823
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1807081045004632528
Took a look at his polling averages. Trump currently leads in PA (+1.8), MI (+1.1), WI (+0.5), GA (+5.7), AZ (+5.6), NC (+7), NV (+4.6).
You have to pay for the forecast and I’m not doing that.
From 10am to 4pm, Biden is dependably engaged — and many of his public events in front of cameras are held within those hours.
Outside of that time range or while traveling abroad, Biden is more likely to have verbal miscues and become fatigued, aides told Axios.
From Politico:
“The fact that people keep coming back to this is so offensive to so many of us,” one veteran Democrat and Harris ally said. “They still don’t get that the message you’re saying to people, to this Democratic Party, is, we prefer a white person.”
Another added, “If they think they are going to get through South Carolina bashing an effective and qualified Black woman vice president — their instincts are as bad as I thought they were.”
Someone wanna tell Kamala Harris’ aides/allies that there is absolutely not going to be a South Carolina primary in 2024? lol
Nauseating, Rs have to be laughing their asses off.
I have to say this is giving me pause.
Certainly the black vote made huge deals in PA MI and GA in 20.
If you dump Biden, and bypass Harris, you will lose the black turnout you need in places like Philly and Michigan in order to win. Black voters will (rightly) feel abandoned and that will suppress the super turnout that is necessary for the current Dem coalition to win.
Is there data backing this up? It seems reductive to be like “well she’s Black so Black voters are surely ride or die for her”, especially when she’s not a particularly inspiring candidate on her own.
Whitmer is obviously the right choice imo. Immensely popular in Michigan, a key swing state that will translate to other Midwest areas, is too much to overcome for anyone else imo.
I also just can’t budge off the position that Michigan won’t actually vote for Trump. They’ve gone blue in every other election. They legalized pot, abortion, voted for whitmer, etc. I just don’t buy it
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Let’s play the game of pretending you are rooting for the other team in order to decide whether to punt or go for it.
Suppose you are a die hard MAGA supporter. You want nothing more than for Trump to be elected in November, and hopefully a dictator. Somehow you are given the power to make the following choice in order to maximize Trump’s chances.
Your choice:
- Biden remains the candidate
- Biden tells the nation he isn’t running. Tells his pledged delegates to vote their conscience at the convention in order to decide the nominee.
0
voters
Easy choice. On top of the cognitive/age issue, they can’t run against Newsomflation. A Dem replacement can largely duck blame for inflation, perhaps pin it on both Trump and Biden and distance themselves from this administration on the issue.
Bipartisanship calls for both to drop out! Let’s make it happen.
I’m with you on the debate was a disaster and Biden is going to lose.
However, I’m not sure you’re right about this. The EC advantage moves around a lot. In 2012, Obama could have lost the popular vote by a point or two and still would have won the tipping point state. I think there’s some evidence out there that Biden doesn’t need a 4 point popular vote margin to carry the EC this time around, owing in part to his improvement amongst white educated people and his collapse amongst people of color & hispanic working class people. If I had to guess, I’d say that Biden needs to win the popular vote by at least 2 points to win the EC, but not necessarily 4 points.
All that said, I think Trump is going to win the popular vote in what’s going to end up being a pretty low turnout election.
They should have been prepping Big Gretch for a presidential run years ago. Yes, I know that’s a vulnerable senate seat, I don’t care, this election is for all the marbles.
She’s not a senator?
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I think Bouie is pretty sharp in this conversation, largely making the argument Biden should stay in, not as a ringing endorsement of him but because the alternative is a giant clusterfuck that probably doesn’t end well:
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I’ll add a quote for one particularly good point I haven’t seen elsewhere yet:
It’s good to recall DeSantis or Scott Walker here - Republican governors with fearsome resumes who ran for President and, as Bouie likes to say, simply did not have the juice when they got up on stage in a national campaign. Newsom might have the juice (he at least has had a lot of exposure, like when he went on Fox to debate DeSantis, so we’ve seen him in this kind of spotlight) but for all the other possibilites like Whitmer, Shapiro, etc. we’re kinda just guessing and hoping they do, much like Republicans hoped DeSantis and Walker would. Harris did run a national campaign and it wasn’t that good, as the presumptive replacement based on her current position I think her juice is pretty questionable.
(And to be clear, even as a Californian, I am not terribly sure of Newsom’s broad national appeal! For as smart and handsome and well-spoken as he is, his whole vibe screams Clinton-esque “slimy elite Democrat”!)
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