lol
I guess just digging in your heels and never acknowledging new data is preferable???
Im not worried about the model it’s the tone he uses and what he chooses to emphasize in his commentary. I think like mctrollson points out he wanted to pump out as much bullish Trump content as he could when the numbers allowed him plausible cover in order to give him more stuff to play “told you so” with after the election if turns out that way.
ETA- I think he also internally sad Biden dropped because he was hoping to have a easy prediction and now is worried he will be on the wrong side of a 60/40 one way or other and career get dented
I kept hearing that debate clip about the dogs and I knew it was reminding me of something…
A post was merged into an existing topic: Lol Mark Robinson: Major Scandal about to drop in NC Gubernatorial Race
I knew NC was getting more cosmopolitan, but I honestly thought it wouldn’t be winnable for Dems until 2028.
Uhhhh probably fools gold here
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1836875827348156717?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
Not falling for this but if that somehow happened it would feel better than I imagine heroin feels
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I would assume that this is an outlier and it’s Cruz +3 or something.
Most likely.
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you do not, under any circumstances, gotta hand it to matt drudge
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Nate has Harris officially ahead today
So the Dems stood down in Maine, despite knowing that the deadline to change Maine’s one electoral vote district was earlier than Nebraska’s? So now Republicans can change it there and Dems can’t respond?
Cool, cool.
If that changes, Kamala’s most likely path to 270 (Blue Wall) becomes a path to 269 and a Trump victory. Forces her to win another whole state, which probably widens the EC/popular vote gap.
Very curious how much this would shift equity in the models - 5% to 10% towards Trump?
Far less than that imo.
There’s basically only one plausible scenario for a 270-268 map (which would turn into a 269-269 loss) that I see. I can’t imagine it’s any more than a 1% change in equity.
Still not zero (and therefore very not good) though.
Huh?