Gun to my head right now, the best value on Polymarket is:
Trump to win Nevada at 63%
Trump to win the popular vote at 38%
I think he’s in the 70-75% range in Nevada and the 45-50% range on popular vote.
Also Wisconsin (17c) or Michigan (16c) to be the tipping point state seems interesting, I could make a decent argument for either being redder than the other two blue wall states. Trump not to flip a Biden state at 10c is interesting as well.
Basically I think it’s a super high variance race with a realigning electorate and some unique variables in correlated states, and both landslide scenarios are in play along with everything in between.
Pretty sure he’s saying he’s going to let vigilantes round up immigrants.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1849252139849179483
They’re literally calling him Daddy.
The overall tone is bad but then reading this part is it really so unbelievable that Harris could win independents better than 55-45?
“ But even if Kamala Harris has a 10-point lead among indies in the current makeup of the electorate, if Trump is holding his base, he is ahead by 6,000 votes or so. Not a lot, but a lead nevertheless.”
The GOP is expected to win the election day vote, though. We need a firewall.
Paraphrasing Ralston here, but Republicans have not won the early vote in Nevada since 2004.
The margin in the state has gone from Obama winning by like 12.5% to Biden by 2.4%, contracting each time. That trend line points to a red Nevada anyway, and a shift towards the GOP in early voting is hard evidence of it.
Meanwhile, this would oppose the narrative of a big polling miss in our favor, unless Nevada is an outlier (which is possible). Or we need Republicans to vote for Harris in significant numbers 
.
My news feed is basically
- right wing asshole endorses Harris
- military asshole endorses Harris
- Obama rapping
- random Republican mayor endorses Harris
- a bunch of terrible polls
I mean if you really believe this you should probably back up the truck on “Trump to win a solid blue state” at 22c. The ones that are the least blue in the set are VA and NM which seem very winnable the way you’re thinking it’s gonna go.
Certainly is a very odd assortment of news and competing factors. Maybe just that people aren’t used to elections where there isn’t a clear steady consensus favorite for large periods of time so any time a couple polls go one way or other people need to build a new narrative up then 5 days later it’s something else