I think right now republicans are flooding the zone with republican leaning results because of some weird combination of hopium and thoughts it could affect the outcome by either affecting actual results or challenging of the results.
Although now that I think about it a bit more there’s a far more simpler reason that’s probably right. What the fuck are you going to do if you have a poll with a bad result for trump right now and you’re a republican leaning outlet? Your entire access/relevance comes from Trump/Republicans, and they’re not exactly all about truth right now. You live for that Trump tweet/truth to flood your visit count
All of the pollsters and media talking heads are in the business of monetizing eyeballs. Right now that’s a huge huge huge conflict of interest and since I’m not betting this cycle there’s less than no reason for me to pay attention to them besides chatting with you guys.
I thought in the Trump era that R leaning polls flood the field late and try to discourage D^ turnout and then the ones that want to be considered legit the next time put out a more or less straight up final poll so they will be considered “good” for 2026/2028.
^or more likely so Trump can try and claim the election is fraudulent cause look at the polls.
It has already been pointed out that Clinton was going to run up the score in 2016. Her campaign’s internal numbers turned out to be way off so it seems to me that Harris should not be overconfident either.
My sense of the HRC campaign is that it was a bunch of old fashioned people she knew from the 90’s running it and terribly. I don’t see the Harris campaign being overconfident here they are definitely putting in all the work and using all the technology.
You’re a professional gambler, you should know how this works. The other markets have to follow because there’s major risk of being out of line with a market a guy is dumping millions into manipulating. You put yourself in a position to take on enormous amounts of one-sided risk as being used to arb against the other market.
Remember the tweet posted in here earlier that in 2020 the books made tons because they couldn’t set a line bad enough that Trump fans wouldn’t keep dumping money on it. But they were very scared because they were taking on a huge liability.
Turns out there’s an issue with unregulated political betting markets because only one party truly participates in them.
That said, the spending by a single right wing entity on the betting markets is reaching an amount where it’s truly limiting the field of potential people it could be. We’re getting close to the point where it’s basically only Thiel, Musk, foreign government, or some sort of pooled money through right wing PACs.
Betting markets leading up to the election in 2020 basically had Biden’s only viable path to victory as the blue wall and had Georgia as lock red. Betting markets were heavily wrong in 2022 bias towards republicans too. The fact that Dems have contributed to the narrative that betting markets are anything other than a right wing echo chamber at this point is infuriating.
Unregulated betting markets, that are illegal for US users, where you need to deposit in crypto to bet saying Trump is going to win is as shocking a development as Twitter poll posted by Elon Musk says Trump is going to win.
The funniest thing about betting markets is that since the vast majority of bettors are white dude’s the skew is on even without someone putting their finger on the scale. The result of that is that it’s probably not all that expensive to push an already silly line to an even sillier place. You definitely are pushing with the current on that one.
Well, they’re repeating the Hillary “let’s win soft Republicans in the suburbs” strategy and the polls have been tightening ever since she started pivoting to the center, so I don’t know how much I trust the wisdom of her campaign.
Listen, let’s say I’m wrong and WAAF. Do you really want to spend the last two weeks before we know 100% WAAF being all doom and gloom? Nah, let’s have good vibes while we still can and act like we’re going to win until it’s officially over.
I don’t think we’re losing, but even if you do let’s ride some good vibes for the next two weeks. I’m encouraging positive news, good vibes, and hope onky!
It worked fine for Biden, Obama, and Clinton before that. Honestly the reason it didn’t work for HRC is that her campaign straight up took the blue wall for granted. They literally thought it was blue and a wall and decided to gamble it up elsewhere… and just ignored the fact that her husband had signed NAFTA in the 90’s and that in that part of the world the Clinton’s are pretty hated and with pretty solid justification tbqh.
There’s a very very real chance that 2016 was a fluke collision between Trump at the peak of his powers and reputation vs the worst major party political candidate of the last century just in terms of fit for the moment.
Even the pivot to the center has been the strongest GOP appeal I’ve ever seen from the Democrats. They pretty much got the entire legacy eGOP to endorse Kamala.
I think it works nearly never on the GOP men but the GOP women we could win a good size chunk of probably. If the Harris campaign thinks they can pull that off they’ve earned my trust by making a ton of other awesome moves in front of me since Biden stepped aside.
