Ehhhhhhh 2020 was REALLY close.
We won GA it wasn’t that close. It would have been less close if we had a much better nominee. I’m still pissed we ran Biden out of that field. He wasn’t that much more coherent in 2020.
Also though since 2020 they blew up RvW and attacked white women’s ability to leave red states to get abortions… and the current abortion laws in red states were written by people who never actually expected them to go into effect or were just idiots with no understanding of obstetrics at all… and I think there was a combination of cynical and stupid present every single time one of those bills passed.
Now we have upper middle class white women finding out they have a big scary problem when they have serious complications here in Texas. My wife has basically told me that for us to have a kid we’re going to have to rent an apartment in a blue state for 9 months and probably pay for all of her maternity care out of pocket because any health insurance we have probably won’t cover services in a different place than we live. Stuff like this causes people to be irate.
Trump got X votes in 2020. He is not getting more votes in 2024 than he did in 2020 too many boomers have died since then and he’s directly shit on too many white women. I do not buy it. I do think the GOP is trying to actually push early voting this time and that’s going to cause panic on our side which hopefully will drive our turnout.
Again though my big position here is that none of us know what we’re talking about. We just can’t see enough cards to know what’s going on.
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I mean there’s a pretty good chance my wife and I have to leave the country and start from scratch at some point in the next four years if Trump wins, so I’m trying to be realistic.
He’s doing better with young and black and Hispanic voters though. Also a lot of women won’t believe how bad it is unless/until they’re personally impacted.
Me in 2020:
“He is not getting more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016.”
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I’m sorry I don’t buy that at all. I don’t think these pollsters know how to reach normal young/black voters. Hispanic voters are a bit more of a mixed bag and a lot of them are older so that’s a bit different… but even there it’s a lot easier to reach the more assimilated hispanics and they are typically very right leaning.
The results you’re talking about there are what made me start to really seriously doubt these pollsters. It’s just not reality in any way shape or form. Young women are the most pissed off group about abortion out there. They’re more likely to turn out in such large numbers that they make this election not close than they are to break for Trump more than 2020.
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I think we way overestimating policy related strategy.
Today had a patient literally unprompted say “think Harris going to win? I didn’t think so, I couldn’t figure out what she is mixed with, it’s something, none my people know. But my cousin said Biden will stay and teach her so it will be OK”
That is apparently how an undecided voter is won over
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He actually had done a lot to win over low information low turnout right wing CHUD’s from 2016 to 2020. He’s a high turnout candidate for both sides it’s just what he is. The man is ratings gold we can’t deny that.
He hasn’t done anything to win a single additional voter since 2020 and actually has managed to enrage the other side even more… and let’s be real he hasn’t been all that great to his base either.
There’s nothing left to do but grit it out and see what happens. I plan to be able to say ‘USA I always believed you’d do the right thing after trying everything else’ hopefully early on 11/6.
Yeah when you’re talking to undecided’s if you’re good at persuasion your goal is to talk as little as possible and let them explain their world view to you. Then you make the argument in the context of their own world view. I will 1000% say leftist/antiracist things using racist terminology all day every day. Mirroring remains one of the most powerful techniques out there for being likable and persuading people. Making them feel judged or attacked is an instant mind lock. Like I’m not going to say the n word but everything up to that absolutely the whole point is to make these people soften a little bit. The words they say are just a symptom of the underlying beliefs. You work on the beliefs and the words will change themselves.
And yes this work is our duty as white men. When you’re in a situation where you are respected by one of these people you have the opportunity to move the needle on the whole conversation with that person. Is it particularly fun? No. Is it particularly rewarding? No. Will it eventually get me into trouble somehow? Maybe.
The main stuff I do to make the world a better place is all about undermining racism. I give black trucking companies work even when on paper they very much do not deserve it (seriously I’d screen these carriers out 100 out of 100 times if they weren’t black) and honestly their service levels are about what you’d expect from what they look like on paper because systems I build at work work. I probably eat low 5 figures a year in real harm to my business doing that… and I do everything I can to undermine the racism of other people who look like me. I consider those things to be the bare minimum I can do.
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We survived the first Trump presidency and we’ll survive the second. And then we’ll all be dead, so yay.
I genuinely don’t think the world order survives another Trump presidency. It’s already very fragile thanks to the introduction of the internet.
We will lose our European allies and end up a petrol state. At some point China will be a better partner to deal with.
I’m not sold there’s going to be a replacement. It’s actually pretty weird to have one global power that controls everything instead of regional powers that dominate their respective areas. China doesn’t really aspire to control the world their mindset is that China is the world and the rest of the planet is the hinterlands… which honestly from the perspective of human history since the dawn of farming isn’t super wrong.
Russia would love to be the global superpower but that’s never going to be acceptable to anyone else and they’re now revealed as the most papery tiger on a planet covered in paper tigers (everyone slacked off because we have such a massive military, why even invest in guns when butter is such a better investment?)
But yeah our time as the richest and most powerful country on earth the one true heir to the British Empire will be over. I think Peter Thiel and co plan to turn us into a tech company the way the British turned into a bank and the Romans turned into a church.
No matter what happens to us the next few decades are going to be jam packed with historical events because of climate change + demographic collapse. It’s going to be a wild rest of the century and I’m actually very unhappy about it lol.
It’ll get more “fine” the whiter you are and the less attention you pay. It’ll legitimately be worse for mental health to even casually follow politics and the Trump presidency the next 4 years than huffing paint.
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Their involvement in Africa and other places indicates they are looking to extend their influence well past their own borders
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I can’t see China playing the slow game with another Trump presidency.
He might be everyone’s favorite puppet, but he’s also in the early stages of dementia with a military whose biggest strength is brute force.
They are pouring money into science while our leaders argue over climate change. If they can eliminate their dependence on food imports and/or they can achieve a true quantum computer, we are fucked.
Right for materials they need in China. They achieve their goals and otherwise are pretty hands off. That doesn’t mean they’re anything but colonizers, but I don’t see the western map painting inclination really. Their world view is centered squarely on domestic China.
Trump doing Rogan sounds. Wonder what happened to the Harris rumors