They also missed on macron by 17 points.
I dunno. Polling has been so weird. If trump really is even with women and 20% with black Americans, it won’t go well. I just don’t believe that will happen with a black woman candidate.
Sorry, yes you are correct. 4.2.
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Well, not quite the “same loophole”. If you believe that election law blog I posted earlier, it sounds like paying people who aren’t registered might be a loophole, whereas paying people who do register is super clearly against the law.
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It also notably has 10% of Biden voters flipping to Trump and only 3% of Trump voters flipping to Kamala.
Sure Jan!
I can’t find the tweet someone posted possibly here, but it was something like:
EVERY VOTE IN FLORIDA
Implement full-blown socialism:
Yes - 61%
No - 39%
Senate race:
Fascist McHitler (R) - 52%
Blandy the Centrist (D) - 48%
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Socialism is pretty popular with conservatives. You just have to add the nationalism.
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So reading further, it isn’t for unregistered voters, just voters that didn’t vote in 2020 so probably the same loophole.
They sound like legit good peeps.
If Trump wins he’s going to jail.
One can hope that justice will be done yeah. If Trump wins I will take solace in knowing Merrick is on one of the first trains.
We need +400K to feel good, though. It’s encouraging but we aren’t there yet.
Yeah but we’re supposed to be running up margins in the mail/early vote.
Yeah I’ve never heard of Atlas Intel before and with those facts established I think it also calls into question the whole ‘A rated pollster’ thing.
I’m sorry but polling doesn’t do a very good job of measuring who is going to turn out and at this point I see it as only marginally better than trying to use the entrails of small woodland creatures to predict the future. The track record of them being useful for any of this just isn’t very good. Being right sometimes is not super duper useful IMO.
I thought Atlas was right leaning, but not like make believe right leaning. But I could be remembering wrong.
Lots of folks struggling with median vs mean
The vibes suck, and this really feels like the last American election ever.
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NYT lists them as one their “select” pollsters so they seem respected. Currently for Georgia for example the Atlas poll is getting the heaviest weight in the average by Nate and my much celebrated WaPost one is buried in 8th of recent GA polls.
Idk wtf is going on. So much of the polling data makes no sense. Everything in my data scientist experiences says trust my guy vs trust bizarro numbers. Trump winning women?
Going to stick my head in the sand for 15 days. My gut says no way he can win but I don’t think Cook, Nate, the old 538 game are full on idiots either (well Nate is
On many subjects but aggregation is not one of them).
At one point do we blame CW for moving from Pennsylvania to a state of zero electoral consequence?
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Strange thing to think about how the small things impact this stuff. I still think Harris going to win but if hypothetically their debate was scheduled for yesterday instead of when it was she would win in a landslide potentially. Guess you have to give Trump team “credit” for digging in on sitting rest out because American electorate clearly not sophisticated enough to account for assuming he would have performed just as bad as first one