Gun to my head right now, the best value on Polymarket is:
Trump to win Nevada at 63%
Trump to win the popular vote at 38%
I think he’s in the 70-75% range in Nevada and the 45-50% range on popular vote.
Also Wisconsin (17c) or Michigan (16c) to be the tipping point state seems interesting, I could make a decent argument for either being redder than the other two blue wall states. Trump not to flip a Biden state at 10c is interesting as well.
Basically I think it’s a super high variance race with a realigning electorate and some unique variables in correlated states, and both landslide scenarios are in play along with everything in between.
Pretty sure he’s saying he’s going to let vigilantes round up immigrants.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1849252139849179483
They’re literally calling him Daddy.
The overall tone is bad but then reading this part is it really so unbelievable that Harris could win independents better than 55-45?
“ But even if Kamala Harris has a 10-point lead among indies in the current makeup of the electorate, if Trump is holding his base, he is ahead by 6,000 votes or so. Not a lot, but a lead nevertheless.”
The GOP is expected to win the election day vote, though. We need a firewall.
Paraphrasing Ralston here, but Republicans have not won the early vote in Nevada since 2004.
The margin in the state has gone from Obama winning by like 12.5% to Biden by 2.4%, contracting each time. That trend line points to a red Nevada anyway, and a shift towards the GOP in early voting is hard evidence of it.
Meanwhile, this would oppose the narrative of a big polling miss in our favor, unless Nevada is an outlier (which is possible). Or we need Republicans to vote for Harris in significant numbers 
.
My news feed is basically
- right wing asshole endorses Harris
- military asshole endorses Harris
- Obama rapping
- random Republican mayor endorses Harris
- a bunch of terrible polls
I mean if you really believe this you should probably back up the truck on “Trump to win a solid blue state” at 22c. The ones that are the least blue in the set are VA and NM which seem very winnable the way you’re thinking it’s gonna go.
Certainly is a very odd assortment of news and competing factors. Maybe just that people aren’t used to elections where there isn’t a clear steady consensus favorite for large periods of time so any time a couple polls go one way or other people need to build a new narrative up then 5 days later it’s something else
Got a tied GA poll from Marist this AM which one of select NYT pollsters. Biden polling was tied when he won. Outperformed polls by 0.1 I think
If the new Trump tape even exists, and even if it’s released, the only result will be some teenage girl being slut shamed and threatened with violence
100% of the attention is laser-focused on Trump as everyone is voting, we are cooked.
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1849094442759659648?s=46&t=ECIc-ET7JxxiLXr8SgrQ7Q
I just wanted you guys to see a Harris +30 in a lock state amidst all the doom posting
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So, my parents are both Republicans and at minimum MAGA adjacent , and I had been weighing whether to even talk to them about trying to change their minds.
Well, I called my mother today. And I let her explain to me why she’s voting for Trump (it was a Transaphobic, anti-immigrants Fox News Greatest hits album … Ugh).
But, I calmly explained to her about Trump’s ‘Enemy From Within’ comments and how I have donated several times to Kamala, have been VERY outspoken about my support of Kamala, and within the past couple of weeks have been working for the campaign, so if there is a list of people Trump is targeting with the military, there is a nonzero chance I’m on that ‘radical left’ list. And, I asked her ‘So, what could you possibly gain that would outweigh potentially seeing me thrown in jail, or worse?
She’s going to leave POTUS blank. But, this is in PA, so at least I fought to a draw.
Can’t bring herself to vote for the ‘unqualified nasty woman,’ or the ‘scumbag’ Tim Walz who ‘put Tampons in boys bathrooms’ in case we all lose sight of how strongly their messaging resonates with boomers.
But, I feel a bit relieved that when she drops off her ballot today it sounds like we’ve got a Trump -minus one.
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I know there’s nothing else to do right now, but drawing any conclusions on stuff like this is pointless without some kind of prior. This stuff is one level above election day posting about how some candidate is up by 8 points with 70% of precincts reporting.
The D/R voter registration split in NC has been going R since forever. The fact that “Ds” outvoted “Rs” by 5 points in 2020, Biden won NC independents by 4 points in exit polls, and Trump still won by 1.5 pts should tell you a lot.
None of this is more predictive than the existing polling.
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By the way, one thing that was very revealing in our conversation that I didn’t love … My mother wishes we had ‘one party’ like in England they have a king or a queen.
She was raised a Devout Christian upbringing in a staunchly Republican household, but it was still jarring and eye opening how strongly it seems boomers/conervatives appear all in on the fascism.
I give her some credit, though, she valued what I had to say; understood my perspective, and is at least not voting for POTUS. Can’t wait to have the same conversation with my father and be told I’m a piece of shit liberal pussy …
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Think we’re cooked, at least in the Sun Belt. Ralston has consistently been correct. Gotta hope PA/GA break Dem.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4946483-nevada-early-voting-democrats/
Dems had 4 years to come up with a message and work on Latino outreach, their closing message is Access Hollywood Tape 2.0, we’re so cooked.
Same with my mother, sent her the Sam Elliot ad and after watching said she wasn’t voting for trump(not sure I believe her), but she wasn’t voting for Kamala either.
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I remain convinced it’s just going to be crazy close election. Even looking at polls been seeing some where Harris losing a H to H but then improves once stein in there ??? (We aren’t expecting that are we?)
I think we need to wrap our minds around public polling being useless.
If she thought she was in in significant danger, I can’t see them going down to Texas, unless they believe it’s gettable.
Early voting, and the campaign’s internals likely paint a far better picture of where things stand.
I will say this, as part of that GOTV ambassadorship I’m working with, we were shown the touch points people had made in PA and there was a proverbial fuckton of blue dots across central PA. This is a pretty organized GOTV effort it seems like, and it feels like when we vote, we win.
Also have to consider this, there are significantly more GOP voters voting by mail this time. So, the election day bump may not be as significant as in years past.
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The Harris campaign has said they do not think Texas is competitive but they are going because Texas is a state where the abortion issue is very salient.
“We think this will obviously be a setting and a message that will reach a national audience,” said David Plouffe, a senior adviser to the Harris campaign. Her goal, he said, would be to “paint the picture of what could happen in this country — in the rest of the states — if Donald Trump is elected president.”