2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

[Melkerson]

What are the best odds I can get on this exact map followed by NE fuckery and Trump inauguration? If I could put some money on that parlay, I would.

[nonfiction]

Bovava/BOL Trump -185/160
Kalshi Trump -165/165
Poly Trump -190/190
predictit Trump -150/140

[CaffeineNeeded]

Registration fraud… by republicans most likely

https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1849848787583246748

[CaffeineNeeded]

Democracy dies in the darkness

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/media/washington-post-wont-endorse-presidential-candidate?Date=20241025&Profile=cnnbrk&utm_content=1729874236&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

[Spinetta]

Scheme to cast votes on stolen mail ballots thwarted by Colorado election...

Mesa county is heavily republican and where that lady who went to jail for interfering with the election is from

[BasicBlue]

Am I just depressed and worried, or does this feel like it isn’t going to be enough? My one bit of hopium is that far more Republicans are voting by mail which could lessen the Election Day turnout.

https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1849811490049593417?s=46

[pvn]

@CaffeineNeeded

This poll is suggesting a major realignment of black voters to vote for Trump

The trump campaign has been wishcasting this since 2016

[pvn]

@McTrollson

I think Ralston is the real deal, he was very correct in 2020.

when there are 9000 pollsters spewing all over the map, one of them is bound to be right for any given election. I don’t think that means that particular guy is yoda.

[commonWealth]

@ParlaySlow

We should 100% expect Republicans to be doing relatively better in Georgia so far vs 2020 due to the changing ways that people are voting. Mail votes will be a fraction of 2020.

I agree, but I was comparing to the total final proportions in 2020, not early/mail votes. They’re doing better in the early votes now than they did overall in the full election in 2020.

[commonWealth]

@BasicBlue

She wrote in RFK Jr.

Which, hey, coming from a MAGA adjacent planned Trump voter in Pennsylvania, I’ll take it.

I would love to see a NYT/Siena poll that asked Boomers who they’re voting for and who they’re telling their kids they’re voting for. My father said RFK Jr, too. But he defends Trump at every opportunity and trashes Kamala at every opportunity, and accidentally admitted to lying to me about his 2008 and 2012 votes, so…

[commonWealth]

@CaffeineNeeded

Democracy dies in the darkness

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/media/washington-post-wont-endorse-presidential-candidate?Date=20241025&Profile=cnnbrk&utm_content=1729874236&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Bezos is making a business decision. He has government contracts.

[commonWealth]

@pvn

@McTrollson

I think Ralston is the real deal, he was very correct in 2020.

when there are 9000 pollsters spewing all over the map, one of them is bound to be right for any given election. I don’t think that means that particular guy is yoda.

Ralston isn’t a pollster, he’s like the OG of analyzing Nevada early vote numbers and he’s been spot-on every two years since I started paying attention in 2016.

[commonWealth]

You could spin this either way.

[Surf]

CNN said national early vote currently is something like 66 to 33 favoring Dems but I’m sure most the votes “don’t matter” in that sample

[Surf]

@BasicBlue

Am I just depressed and worried, or does this feel like it isn’t going to be enough? My one bit of hopium is that far more Republicans are voting by mail which could lessen the Election Day turnout.

I thought the initial thing was just we wanted to get to +360k or something? Can’t keep track

[pvn]

@commonWealth

Ralston isn’t a pollster, he’s like the OG of analyzing Nevada early vote numbers and he’s been spot-on every two years since I started paying attention in 2016.

well whatever, it’s not specific to pollsters, my point is anyone being right once isn’t a reason to backup the truck betting on him to be right again, if he’s got more of a track record than one shot, great

[commonWealth]

I think it’s 390K

[Surf]

@commonWealth

I think it’s 390K

We should be able to get to that from here right?

[BasicBlue]

Now this right here is what’s wrong with the corporate media in this country, and I honestly don’t know the fix.

[MrWookie]

I think you do