Not buying this little movement towards Trump
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1849886466547106233?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
I just for the life of me can’t think of any real world data or moment or gaffe that would have triggered the race to break in Trump’s direction the past two weeks? The transaphobic ads have been running for months, why would they move the race now? The economy hasn’t cratered — quite the opposite. Is this all one big psyop?
So Beyonce didn’t perform, she just gave a 5 minute speech (very good btw) and introduced Kamala. Pretty sure Beyonce lives in NY and has a house in LA. So why did they fly her to Houston for a massive rally to give a 5 minute speech?
For a Beyonce hometown performance that will generate a hundred million views on social, maybe. This? They could have done this in Philly.
Worst case they think Allred can win and felt safe leaving the swing states for a day. Kamala is not dumb, and she’s not wasting one of her last 11 days in a state she can’t win if she thinks she’s in trouble.
Her campaign thinks they’re a massive favorite and thinks Allred can win. Maybe they think they can even win Texas.
This is the weirdest election runup I’ve seen in my adulthood. Some of the data points/behavior just HAS to be dead wrong.
Either the polls are trash because the new methodology forces a close race, and the early voting data is misleading for some reason, and Kamala has it in the bag… Or the polls and data are good, Trump has all the enthusiasm even though he can’t fill a 5K seat venue and Kamala is lacking enthusiasm despite packed houses, and Kamala and her team are morons who wasted a day in Texas.
I think of all of that, I am most confident that Kamala is not dumb.
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We’ll see if this info ends up being correct, but someone who is in a position to know told me that next week Taylor Swift is doing what Beyonce did today. He didn’t say where, but I assume Pennsylvania.
Trump has already done a million of those rallies in the past 8 years.
Also these rallies only indicate the enthusiasm of the ~top 5% of most engaged voters and we should be careful when extrapolating. If Trump’s cult of personality has a firmer or farther reaching grip than Harris then he can easily win. If there’s is one candidate that voters wholeheartedly support but won’t admit it in public then that’s Trump.
With the size of usual margin of error seems little suspicious to have like 4 major polls in 2 days come back exactly even lol. Feels like nobody wants to be be wrong
Really hoping that a not insignificant number of republican women fit this description but for Kamala.
NYT can shoot this straight into my veins, fact they commissioned these polling shows they really think Trump EC advantage eroding
Overall, Kamala Harris leads Donald J. Trump, 66 percent to 27 percent. Although it’s a significant advantage, it also represents a major decline in Democratic support since 2020, when President Biden won the city, 76-23.
Our recent poll of nearby Philadelphia, for instance, showed Ms. Harris doing just fine there (79-16).
I mean, one party government in New York City is objectively not working, with cartoonish corruption levels.
One party government is also not working in New York State, for similar reasons. The dems have royally fucked up and pushed New York to the right.
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Interesting that the NV so divergent from rest so feels like for whatever reason all that ralston analysis may have nothing to do with rest country.
We have any idea what are the normal M/F early vote splits?
I feel bad having to kind of be a tease here, but I can’t about face with no explanation whatsoever and can’t share details on this right now. But I figured something out last night that I’m pretty sure Ralston and Silver and the rest of them don’t know, and I’m feeling very fucking unburdened.
