Arguing about whether the economy is in fact good or bad

23% effective rate for median income earners feels very high to me. Haven’t looked at the math but I would have said their rate is more in the 15-20% range if you asked me to guess.

Thanks, Biden

this doesn’t seem to be restricted to income taxes, I’m assuming it includes local taxes and payroll taxes etc

CPI has already been debunked ITT several times. Something to do with Zillow rental stats.

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That discussion aside, the thing people think about is that the prices of everything is still way higher than was a few years ago. The average person doesn’t get into the thought process of why negative inflation would be bad they still pissed that X thing they care about is still more expensive. So probably takes a long time for sentiment about inflation to change so I don’t think it’s a great topic to campaign on except maybe to hate on other countries for being way worse

Speaking of Zillow surveys…

https://x.com/ernietedeschi/status/1790724620141604934

I’m just a dishonest poster though.

I mean, people really want these types of opinion polls to be a cumulative expression of lived experience, but it simply is not. You could fix what the country thought about inflation by telling 30% of the country that Trump is now president and the subsequent propaganda machine turning off.

This is related to a more generalized problem in Democratic strategy, which is the idea that they’d effectively govern and everything would work itself out with Trump.

It did not, in fact, go that way. He needed to be absolutely crushed, and they just didn’t have the political will to do it

Of course that would work on the rubes. It doesn’t work on Democratic voters.

Democratic voters are influenced by that propaganda machine as well, and also have a far better view of the economy.

Simply turning off media nonsense about inflation would massive drop concerns about inflation.

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1790888383775936749?t=x92W0xOnrF6bwQIWFwlFEQ&s=19

What does this plot look like in 2019, because, lol, it’s not reasonable to compare 2020 data with just about anything

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This Newshour report on the inflation numbers echos some of the arguments made in this thread, especially this part at the end:

Paul Solman: So, yes, the data show price hikes tapering, but not for everyone equally, echoes Stantcheva.

Stefanie Stantcheva: We know there’s inflation inequality, where the basket of goods that people consume will vastly shape the inflation experience. So, I think this is very important to bear in mind when thinking about people’s stress responses, reactions, lived experience that might just not well be captured by our official statistics.

Paul Solman: Which may help explain why consumer sentiment sank in May, many Americans feeling that inflation hasn’t dropped fast enough and could even get worse.

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If I hear “basket of goods” one more time I’m going to start enacting a reign of terror on economists.

Yeah, wtf. The Economist should know better than that.

Yeah, well, what does she know?

Stefanie Stantcheva (born in 1986 Bulgaria[2]) is a Bulgarian-born French economist who has served as the Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economy at Harvard University since 2021.[5] She has been a member of the Conseil d’Analyse Économique since 2018.[5] In 2018, she was described by The Economist as one of the best young economists of the decade.[6]

Ah, well, nevertheless!

Literally no one disagrees with that statement.

You mean a single number meant to represent the average consumer price level does not reflect the actual lived experience of every individual? Concerning.

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:harold:

This data is presented in a weird way. Do you have an actual source for it?