I’m confused about this guys point in regard to Biden withdrawal. How many those data points from the last 3 days? Looks it started running up like 2 months ago?
mis-read enthusiasm as per above the first time.
The views about the economy were never based on anything rational, pretty much the last nail in the coffin on this subject
https://x.com/djsokespeaking/status/1820990264258814386?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ
This index was between 55 and 60 before COVID, it rising to 37 does not support the point you’re trying to make.
Why is it rising cW?
The whole point here is that these feelings of how the economy doing is purely based on vibes instead of facts about the economy, you pointing out that the index was higher in covid helps my point.
Because Trump has undying, fact-free support from his followers.
2 Likes
The index was higher before covid, it hit its all-time low during covid.
The index was in the high 40s at the end of Obama’s term, it shot into the 50s when Trump won, which probably gives you an idea of the partisan brainwashed conservative bump.
Regardless, celebrating it going from 34 to 37 is spiking the football in the middle of the field. Like is some of the index based on feels? Sure, but not all of it, it’s way below where it was pre-covid. IIRC we had this same argument before and I debunked a similar data point showing it was as low as it had been since the financial crisis.
I for one am sick and tired about the automatic perception that Donny is better at the economy and the border. He’s a fucking disaster at everything.
Dumbass MSM.
That’s not the question, tho. The question is why it’s up all of a sudden right now when, if anything, economic news has been on the bad side?
My entire lifetime has been Republicans fucking up good economies and Democrats saving bad ones that then Republicans take credit for, prior to fucking them up. But of course, facts don’t matter.
I don’t think the economic news for the bottom 50% is necessarily any better or worse than it was a month ago. Plus Kamala is providing more hope, speaking coherently about not just getting by but getting ahead. I could see that causing a bump.
But we’re talking about going from 34 to 37, that’s still a bad number and it’s a small deviation.
It’s not Kamala hopium? I do think there’s a certain slice of the country that was just in a deep despair regarding having to choose Biden or Trump who are now a little more optimistic about the future
1 Like
Of course it is! That’s been my whole thesis in this thread, that peoples’ feelings about the economy are largely divorced from actual economic conditions but based largely on vibes, that Republicans’ feeling on the economy can be predicted simply based on the party of the guy in the white house, and that Dems’ feelings are at least somewhat more reflective of actual economic conditions but are still susceptible overwhelmingly negative messaging from the right.
2 Likes
Of course feeling are based on vibes, they’re nearly synonyms. I think the hopium aspect is import though in that it is forward looking feelings about the future rather than feelings about the present.
So like if these indicators are changing but the current conditions are not it has something to do with how people see the spectrum of future possibilities and their likelihood, maybe at a more subconscious level
I received arguments against my thesis claiming specifically that economic sentiment was down specifically because of lower and middle class Americans being objectively worse off now compared to earlier times, and that Dem politicians should “shut the fuck up” about the economy because any attempt at improved messaging would be laughed off by the people who know the harsh realities of the modern economy and only make themselves less likely to be re-elected.
It sure seems to me like messaging – and messaging only! – can make a real difference in economic sentiment.
2 Likes
Again, this indicator went from 34 to 37. Largely?
Certainly not me. I said they should stop telling people things were great and tell them things have improved but there was more work to do for the middle and working class. Kamala is running on helping people not just get by, but get ahead.
It’s the largest single increase ever in the 11 year history of the metric.
Yeah and this is more of a “people’s sentiment about the economy rarely changes quickly” thing than a “holy shit what a huge change” thing. Like I don’t know the methodology here, but either 3% more people said the economy is good or people on average feel 3% better about it. (Well, 2.7%, but whatever.)
Like if the sentiment index went from 0 to 5, would that be a more impressive economic indicator than it going from 34 to 37? What about if it went from 99.5 to 99.6, would that be worse than this?
It seems to me there are two clear points here. One: sentiment about the economy is still weak. Two: having someone talking about helping people get ahead instead of just getting by seems to be helping.
Those two points seem to be what a few of us were arguing in this thread months ago.
That’s the point that Wookie and CN are trying to make though. That people’s sentiment about the economy is almost entirely bullshit and based on vibes.