Serious question, in the past 3 weeks is Harris really taking about people getting ahead more than Biden was? Maybe she is, I haven’t really listened to her rallies.
Can’t remember if I saw this on UP or someplace else but it’s the best summary I’ve seen.
The stock market is just a graph of rich people’s feelings.
Again, this thing went from 34 to 37. It was in the high 40s when Obama left office. A 3 point jump may be the biggest ever, but it’s not big. The economy moves slowly and sentiment moves slowly. A 3 point jump does not make the point that sentiment is bullshitty vibes.
Yes, a big part of this difference between her and Biden is probably just being coherent about that message and repeating it more often. And it’s in her ads.
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Come on man.
We’re either talking about 3% of people or people feeling 3% better about the economy, and we’re talking about it being well below the levels when Obama left office. Like, four more biggest jumps ever away from that.
This is not some kind of objective metric, like a glucose monitor.
The incessant corporate media drumbeat that the sky has fallen (aka the derper echo chamber) means that fraction that are never ever going to say yes when the other side is in power is larger. So it doesn’t really matter what the absolute number was under Obama.
On the data side, a one time jump, even if part of a trend should be viewed with patience to se if it sustains or it ends up as a blip.
So fwiw there is a win on sentiment currently. How big and for how long it lasts is up in the air. Electoral impact? It’s got to hang on a little while longer. Of course we said that about RBG in 2020.
I don’t doubt that some people are struggling and maybe conflating those struggles on a broader economic level, but this graphic sure seems to reinforce both that how people feel about the economy is based on “vibes” and messaging rather than any real economic indicator or condition …
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As a vibes guy, I’m less persuaded by that graph as it’s literally asking about vibes rather than pretending to measure objective reality.
FWIW, I don’t think that’s what this data says. It’s an index, not a percentage, and it looks like their full methods are behind a wall that I’m not willing to get around. Regardless, I’d be shocked if they didn’t smooth out their data a bit as they’re collecting data all the time. It’d be silly not to.
Also it has a breakdown, notice how nothing changed in people’s actual situations
https://x.com/CS_Penta/status/1818742177331376522
It’s all vibes.
When Obama left office vs now:
US Economy 53.1 → 46.7
Personal Finances 65.3 → 56
New Home 50.5 → 19.7
Major Purchase 49.3 → 24
New Job 43.8 → 39.8
This all tracks with an economy that is not working for the bottom 50%, where they’re just scraping by and feel like they can’t get ahead…
At the end of the day, yeah, some people just base it on what Fox News tells them, but that’s been baked into this index probably for the life of it. The reality is, these five numbers are screaming at us about why a lot of people aren’t happy with the economy: housing costs and inability to make a major purchase - which tracks with an inability to get ahead. This is screaming, “a lot of people are just barely scraping by.”
And looping back to the whole point, the whole reason we’re arguing about this… This started because a few of you said that Biden should just hammer a message of “Bidenomics are a success, the economy is booming, look at these great numbers, vote for me for more of this.”
And a few of us told you that message would be received very poorly by a lot of people. Now Harris is out there saying stuff like, “We’re going to make sure you’re able to not just get by, but get ahead,” and the numbers are improving. And you’re saying, “See? It’s all just vibes.”
But, the personal finances number DROPPED 0.1 points to 56.0. The confidence numbers are in finding a new job, making a major purchase, buying a new home, and overall. So the respondents aren’t vibing out and saying they’re doing better right now. They appear to be expressing more confidence in things improving for them in the future - aka the economy working for more people.
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I have no idea why you think using the Obama numbers is useful here. Your post is “here are numbers”, ???, “poor people scraping by”.
There’s little to no change in these numbers except in how they perceive the economy future, it’s all vibes bro. You need to send out good vibes
It shows how people’s perceptions about the economy have changed over an ~8 year period that doesn’t start in the middle of the global financial crisis or in the middle of COVID. For an indicator that’s been around 11 years, this is probably the cleanest start date to use in that regard, and it begins from a meaningful milestone that we can all remember.
Since then, people think the economy is a little worse off, their personal finances are noticeably worse off, hunting for a new job is slightly worse, and buying a house or making a purchase is catastrophically worse.
Those perceptions are well tethered to reality over a meaningful sample of time.
Again, this debate started because you and a couple others said that Dems should hammer a message like, “Bidenomics are a success, the economy is booming, look at this great numbers, vote for us for more of this!”
Myself and a couple others said that would be poorly received by a lot of people, and the message needed to be about how the economic gains weren’t being enjoyed by the working class and that helping the middle class/working class get ahead, afford housing, etc would be the mission for four more years.
Democrats hit that first message you wanted, and nothing changed. They swapped Harris in, she started hitting a message about not just getting by but getting ahead, and things have improved significantly in polling on these issues.
It’s not about just sending out good vibes, it’s about sending out the right vibes that match the mood of the target audience based on their reality… and if Harris wins on that message and doesn’t deliver, she’s not going to be able to pound “Things are great! Vote for me for more!” with success in four years.
The fact that she’s polling ahead of Trump on the economy now and this sentiment index has improved while personal finance sentiment has not improved shows that a chunk of people are receptive to her message, aka they feel like they are being screwed in this economy and can’t get ahead, and they want someone to help fix that. It validates the argument myself and others have made: the economy feels rigged to the bottom 50% (because it is) and it would be political malpractice to piss on their heads and tell them it’s rain.
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I honestly wonder how much of the newly-positive vibes are just democrats who are thinking “oh hey, it’s starting to look like maybe the economy the next four years isn’t gonna be presided over by a moron who might quadruple my taxes so that he can lower the corporate rate to 0%, or randomly declare Trumpcoin to be the new currency, or whatever”.
Of course republican consumers don’t figure into any changes in the index since they continue to answer that they’ve never been worse off than they are under Biden, that they think we’ve been in a recession since Feb 2021, etc.
But you’re comparing an era where the vibes are good with an era when vibes are bad. It’s kind of the whole point.
No they didn’t, at least not effectively. Dems are now chanting about ‘We’re not going back’ and hitting some strong 'U-S-A, U-S-A, U-S-A" changes. They literally, just now are able to effectively communicate these good vibes. Things are going well, we can do even better is exactly what I wanted, what they are doing, and what is seemingly working.
What it seems like is that people just didn’t trust someone they saw as old as shit. It sure as hell isn’t the policy differences or changes in the macro-economy.
I think that people were just fucking sick of what they saw as the same old DC bullshit and didn’t trust Biden to do better. I think that’s moronic but the average voter is a moron.
Harris is seen as a change and reason for hope. It’s also a claim of power for the younger generation, at least by perception, which is driving hope. That perception is super important, and something she can take great advantage of.
So the cratering of the housing number since then is vibes? Cmon.
[quote=“CaffeineNeeded, post:702, topic:771, full:true”]
No they didn’t, at least not effectively. Dems are now chanting about ‘We’re not going back’ and hitting some strong 'U-S-A, U-S-A, U-S-A" changes. [/Quote]
That has nothing to do with the economy.
They’re specifically targeting it at helping the middle class and things not being good enough yet for the middle class and below.
That’s your opinion not a fact.
CPI below 3 percent for the first time since before it started to rise:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/14/economy/us-cpi-consumer-price-index-inflation-july/index.html
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this is just because prices are assuming trump gonna win and they’re afraid of his war on inflation
Ok can we finally admit it’s good?
Admittedly I’m drunk in an airport bar on my way to Seattle for the first time to sailgate and watch UM-UW but come on?
Or are we this:
https://x.com/kamalahq/status/1842295682717106555?s=46&t=N0_fcOKIYYmlCS2e4YShsQ