WINNER
This one is definitely possible.
Who decides in case of a tie? Congress?
Yeah. House (the new house that is sworn in on January 3) would elect the president, but each state gets one vote each. Basically a 269-269 tie is a win for Trump.
Senate would elect the VP (again a win for Republicans).
It used to be a lock that 269-269 went GOP, but in the age of Trump it may not be. The current House delegation breakdown is 26 GOP, 2 tie, 22 Dem. But one of the GOP is Wisconsin, which I think just got rid of that gerrymander. So that’s probably 25 GOP, 2 tie, 23 Dem.
The ties are Minnesota and North Carolina, and under normal circumstances one would assume that if Trump wins, the NC Congressional delegation flips red… But with Lara Trump likely siphoning funds into Trump family coffers, and abortion being a key issue that’s helping Dems win elections, it’s at least plausible that we end up with 25 GOP, 25 Dem.
So we could have a tie on the tiebreaker, which means… (going to Google) they keep voting until they get a winner, and if they don’t get one by inauguration day, the Senate’s VP winner gets sworn in as acting president.
So probably Trump’s VP candidate. We probably lose AZ and NV if Trump wins them, I think we can hold Tester and Brown, so the GOP takes it 51-49 and elects Trump’s VP pick. But in a world where the GOP fucks up and picks a lunatic in NV or AZ, which seems plausible, it could be 50-50 there too.
Of course Democrats would try to have Kamala break the tie and elect herself president, but based on the language in the Constitution, it seems unlikely to be allowed and with this SCOTUS obviously it’s not.
However, there appears to be no tiebreaker. I assume that the Speaker of the House would then become President? I assume it would be up to SCOTUS at this point, and shenanigans would probably rule the day.
Some other fun stuff I learned today…
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Quorum for the House side is a member or members from 2/3 of the states. There are 10 100% Dem and 11 100% GOP state Congressional delegations. So I don’t think denying quorum is within reach there.
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Quorum for the Senate side is 2/3 of all Senators, so either side could deny quorum. I would assume the remaining Senators would then expel enough Senators from the other side to reduce the “whole number of Senators” and proceed, if the Democrats were denying quorum. If the Republicans were denying quorum, I assume they’d be allowed to do so and the Speaker would be sworn in.
Of course none of this matters, because some MAGA lunatics would probably just assassinate enough House Dems to swing the delegations and guarantee a Trump victory.
Pretty funny that the Founders never thought past a tie in the House or Senate, though. It does allow the top three electoral vote getters in, but RFK Jr is probably not getting any.
I can’t seen this happening (specifically the NC congressional delegation flipping blue) without Biden carrying that state (and thus the election outright).
Plus didn’t they just gerrymander the NC districts recently?
Ties were impossible when we were a simple 13 States, therefore the solution is only the original 13 get to participate in a tiebreaker scenario.
So what you’re saying is, president MTG?
It’s unlikely, but possible with Team Trump strip mining the RNC of its money and with abortion being a key factor that could lead to some ballot splitting. I’m thinking a situation where the GOP nominates a lunatic who comes out against IVF and in favor of rapists’ right to see their child, and the Dem representative just goes 100% abortion rights and wins in like an R+6 district or something.
I’m not sure what the latest is on that, seems like it was bouncing around the courts iirc?
I think SCOTUS will disagree once they start counting northern states.
Lost in all of this: Why TF does Minnesota (a Biden +7 state that has a Democratic trifecta at the state level) have a 4-4 split in the US House?
Conservative: I have been censored for my conservative views
Me: Holy shit! You were censored for wanting lower taxes?
Con: LOL no…no not those views
Me: So…deregulation?
Con: Haha no not those views either
Me: Which views, exactly?
Con: Oh, you know the ones
NC re-gerrymandered so Ds are never winning a majority of seats there ever again unless they manage to win back the state supreme Court and get a case up there which will probably take many years. Wisconsin got rid of the gerrymander for state level elections but not federal so the Rs are safe there as well.
This doesn’t seem that bold today.
I think flip Colorado blue and that’s the most likely map right now. At least we’ll all get to go to bed early on election night this time.
Yeah that sounds about right if Biden stays in.
I might switch Oregon and Washington to red as well. Jersey also possible.
