Oh, and for shits and giggles, here’s a completely realistic path to the Republicans capturing a filibuster-proof Senate Majority:
Edit: Could even get to 61 with a Minnesota flip.
VA/PA incumbents losing and MD losing is pretty unlikely, but it is disturbing how few stretches you need for this map to be plausible.
Turns out the easiest way for those things to happen is having a top of the ticket that no one is enthusiastic to turn out for.
MD with Hogan isn’t all that unlikely in a Trump Reagan style landslide, which honestly looks increasingly likely. Swap one of the MD/PA for MN, and it’s really not hard to see how we get there.
Yeah, that’s the thing. Let’s pretend for a moment that the 2024 election generates 2020 level turnout for republicans and oh, let’s say 2014 level turnout for democrats. Is that a stretch? I’m pretty sure that leads to both of the maps I just posted.
Oh, and if PA goes like 8 points for trump or something like that (not out of the question!), I don’t care that it’s an incumbent senator running, that senator is losing.
I went looking at how some of these Dem senators in red states fared during previous elections where their states went the other way and it was…not encouraging 
Mostly because they’re all on the 2012 → 2018 → 2024 schedule. Jon Tester won by 4 in Montana while Obama lost the state by 14 which is pretty insane, but Sherrod Brown won Ohio with Obama (only 3 points ahead). In 2016 and 2020, if I’m recalling my states correctly, every Senate result mirrored the presidential election result in that state.
This is true, with the exception of Susan Collins (thanks Maine voters!).
You think Biden loses Delaware? I don’t really have a problem with the rest of the map.
I don’t even think that prediction is that bold anymore.
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