It may be true that Florida has gone significantly downhill in the last 2 years, but you didn’t account for the fact that it’s all Biden’s fault. I don’t think DeSantis would win by 20 if the election were this year but he’d quite easily clear double digits imo.
Which is more likely as of right now?
- Kamala gets 340 or more EVs (clearest path: NC and FL flip blue)
- Kamala gets 260 or fewer EVs (clearest path: PA flips red plus either MI+WI or GA+AZ)
0
voters
If this dumb motherfucker doesn’t disavow the Nazi, we’ve got a path to something like this. This is the old white guys who still know Nazis are bad stay home or vote Kamala.
I’m bullish on Harris but I think pulling through and flipping NC is best we can hope for on this one scandal which should be enough for the W so obviously would be amazing
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Well I assume Trump will eventually half-ass wishy washy unendorse Robinson. And this is the bold thread.
My best guess right now is…
lol, if Harris is carrying Kansas, Montana and Utah she’s also carrying Maine’s other ED.
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I didn’t go too deep on it, just tried to pick a few non-deep south red states where I thought there was enough WWII era patriotism on the right and still enough liberals to get it done.
Trump has 25-50% support in polls of Jewish voters (saw 25% national and 54% in NY). Let’s assume Florida is at 40% and Jewish voters make up 3% of the electorate. If he drops to 15%, 0.75% swings from him to Kamala. That’s a 3-5 point race at most. So that cuts it to 1.5% to 3.5%, at most. Now crank up the turnout among Jewish voters and it tightens more. Do the same for Haitians, and we’ve got a true toss up in Florida just like the good old days.
Trump does not have 25-50 percent of the Jewish vote.
Edit: 25 percent maybe, your range is just off.
Siena/NYT had him leading 54-44 in NY, I saw Kamala 72-25 nationally in another poll.
I could see the numbers being very different in FL and NY than nationally.
I wish he didn’t but I’m a lot more doubtful that there are any black people voting for Trump over Kamala than I am that there are 25-50% of Jewish people voting for Trump.
Let’s be real the Orthodox Jewry has a lot of super shitty people inside it. They’re not better people than Evangelicals IMO and IME.
What I don’t think is that Trump can lose those people.
Not sure of the numbers but there’s a disproportionately large population of Orthodox Jewish people in NY - both in Brooklyn and upstate. And then I would assume Florida (insert any demographic group here) are more Trumpy than the national average by a lot.
True, but the orthodox are greatly outnumbered by the secular.
New York State’s Jewish population is 19% Orthodox and 15% Conservative. I assume that’s way higher than nationwide.
Conservative aren’t like orthodox and almost certainly skew more democratic than republican, especially in NY.
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I know this is the bold thread, but Utah?
Surely ME-02, IN, MO, SC and probably NE-01 are more likely than that.
meh i don’t think it’s going to happen, at all, but the way you get there is this:
But yeah trump won by 21 so I agree
Are you assuming 100% of them vote?
I’m assuming their % of the population matches their % of the vote. Obviously they may not be the case, but it seems like a reasonable starting point.