That makes sense but I’d chalk a lot of poker room deplorables up to selection bias. “Fuck this commie state, I’m leaving” seems like a meme a lot of (privileged) people like to say but few people act on, whereas financial forces that cause people to leave more expensive areas for cheaper areas (regardless of politics) are much more salient in people’s lives.
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GA and NC becoming swing states is huge, that’s a big front the GOP doesn’t want to have to defend.
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I think if I were strategizing, I’d put about 60% of swing state resources into PA/MI/WI and 40% into NC/GA/AZ/NV. Then in 2-4 weeks, re-evaluate the polling and re-allocate accordingly.
Given that it’s basically a fresh race and Harris is still defining herself to voters, there’s a lot of upside to optionality and we really don’t know how the paths will look going into the convention.
It would be a huge media story if Kamala pulled ahead in NC, which would lead to positive free airtime and force Trump to defend the state. That alone would lead to a lot of coverage about Trump’s numbers crashing and that could make him spiral over the edge.
For the final 60 days they should obviously optimize to maximize win %, but at first they need to get a clear picture. It would suck to lose a razor thin electoral college race and lose Nevada or NC by like 0.25% and not have spent much time/money there.
Also now that I think more about this, I hate Cooper as VP. NC is a cheaper state to advertise in than PA, I assume, and correlates to one other state and a total of 32 electoral votes. PA/MI/WI covers three states, four major media markets including one I assume is quite expensive and adds up to 44 electoral votes. AZ/NV is only 17 EVs.
Shapiro or Pete. Or Walz.
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This isn’t how it works. We have enough money and surrogates to contest every single race in every single place to the maximum extent. Doing anything else is bad because there is diminishing returns to putting resources anywhere past a certain point and we have enough resources to drive deep into that territory everywhere. We want to force the GOP to spread their grift depleted resources as thinly as possible and punish them every place they skimp.
I genuinely think we should contest every race with a remotely viable candidate in every single state absolutely including Utah and the deep south. Not because I think we’ll win much (although I think we might pull a random upset or two) but because if they don’t respond to us it’ll work and that will force them to spend resources defending places that shouldn’t be competitive.
Ok map folks, we seem a lock if we win PA but if things go bad there we got any viable non-PA paths?
If you take the 2020 map and turn PA red, Dems win in 2024 by 14 EVs (a buffer large enough to also lose NV, AZ, or WI but not GA/MI).
You want BOLD? Go look at the latest polling in iowa and peep the amount of Haitians who live in Florida. I don’t know how far away we are from this …
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Gotta turn NV and AZ blue if you’re gonna do that.
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I know I’m going to get mocked for this but I genuinely think we’re getting 350+ EV’s 85%+ of the time from where we are now. Trump is spiraling badly going through what every one of us with meaningful experience with someone with NPD can easily recognize as a self destructive narcissistic bender where the narc attempts to destroy everything to prove that it’s everyone else’s fault. Then you have the financial, organizational, and demographic situation which is if anything more bleak than the state of Trumps game as a political candidate now.
It’s going to be a massacre down ballot too. I think a lot of people greatly underestimate just how crazy hard it was for the GOP to keep things as close as they’ve been the last 16 years.
I really wanna believe that, but Trump’s floor + the inevitable attempt from the media to create narratives to make things close + the possibility of some massively amplified Harris “scandal” or a -20% stock market day like 3 days before the election + the chance of a much better organized, robust plan in place to throw out votes or refuse to certify, is all gonna make me a wreck right up until the moment Harris is inaugurated.
It’s possible that Trump continues to spiral like you said, the election is a blue bloodbath and we look back on it saying “oh it seemed obvious this was gonna happen”. But who the fuck knows.
I hope you’re right, but that’s WAY too high of a percentage imo.
303 is everything that Biden won last time.
To get to 350+ you need all of that, plus either NC/OH plus either TX/FL. You really think that happens 85 percent of the time?
Lol, Trump is still a slight favorite to ship this whole thing.
I think we’re winning Florida a sizable portion of the time here yeah. That state has gone massively downhill under GOP leadership and an awful lot of Hatians live down there… and there’s weed and abortion on the ballot.
I think OH is a flip and NC is close to a blue lock assuming there’s no gigantic ground shifting change between now an election day.
All of Trump’s equity comes from him getting his shit together AND getting lucky repeatedly. It’s certainly not impossible for him to get lucky with that gigantic horseshoe he stores in his ass, but he’s not going to get his shit together it’s already too late for that.
Massively downhill in the last 2 years?
Just looking at the elections they had in 2022, Desantis won by 20 points. (LOL nominating Crist of course, but the state AG and state treasurer won by similar margins). Plus they crushed in the state senate and state house races. And also Rubio won by 16.
Yes massively downhill in the last 2 years specifically, two years ago condo’s in Florida were worth money and today they probably aren’t. And yes the Democratic candidates in 2022 were trash + nobody thought FL was really in play and they had other places to fight over.
Let’s not pretend like Desantis would win by 20 if we held another election tomorrow lol. That was literally the last election they had in Florida before climate change and the state of the insurance industry in the state started to really hurt people. And by people I mean every human that lives in Florida. Rich, poor, renter, home owner everyone absolutely everyone is getting crushed by the cost of property and casualty insurance in the state and it’s all the GOP’s fault.
Maybe if election held today but Harris has been the nominee for only a few weeks in scheme of things and spent lot of that hunkered down to get ready to crush Trump debate, so now that she successfully did crush Trump and now free to campaign super hard the polls going to continue to improve. The momentum is massive, just look at her favorability graphs, nobody knew who she was couple months ago and now that they getting a look at her it’s been like straight line up
If you genuinely think that you will be able to make lots of profitable bets.
You’re right, he’d win by like 8-12.
Ok you’ve hit your head. Ohio is definitely not a flip. It is absolutely locked down, burning red, Trump.
This thread is for bold predictions lol. Also I’ve seen a full scale npd meltdown more times than I can directly recall… we moved every six months when I was a kid for a reason. Donald is going to get worse from here, much worse. He’s going to alienate a whole bunch of people who very likely would have voted for him.
I think this election is going to be a bigger stomping than 2008 and I’m not particularly afraid to say it. I’m a whole lot closer to reality right now than the doomers here imo.