Nobody is actually going to feel the pain of a government shutdown, though. The last one only ended because congress critters couldn’t fly when air traffic controllers stopped getting paid.
If it goes on for a couple months, it could definitely tip us into a recession. I think that length is possible in this dynamic.
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This is what’s going on with the GOP. I think it’s very unlikely they don’t find a way to take the entire blame for the way the economy is. The student loan thing would be the dumbest shit imaginable but they also repealed RvW.
The reason I’m not particularly stressed about the presidential election is that the GOP as an actual political party is vaporizing in front of our very eyes.
Trump is a legit worst of all time political candidate but if he somehow isn’t the nominee he will 100% guaranteed burn it all down. Anyone who has a chance to win the primary if Trump dies or something will be from the extreme nutcase side of the party which means they’ll probably be less effective than 2016 Trump.
The hopium is over here guys. The GOP is reality TV show dysfunctional at this point and their idiocy looks bad to independents.
And I’m sorry but if you’re constantly consuming news content and you aren’t trying to find a framing that is both reasonable and at least a little bit hopeful idk enjoy your extra serving of depression I guess lol.
They’re a lock to hold the senate…
I wouldn’t call it a lock necessarily after we faded the 2022 map which was arguably worse.
wat? 2022 featured multiple pickup opportunities for the Ds and only a couple of tough holds. This one is a bunch of tough to impossible holds and exactly 0 pickup opportunities.
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Brown is actually polling ok. Tester has a small chance. Manchin has a little equity. So we’re not guaranteed to lose it, but obviously we’re big underdogs. Frankly, we may be better off losing it. Biden’s not going to get shit done in a second term, especially with a narrow path in the Senate and possibly Manchin or somebody like Coons deciding to be the less extreme Manchin. So it may be better to just blame the lack of progress on the GOP.
I think since before 2020 I have been saying the path was really to not go backwards any further as a democracy from 2020-2028, then possibly get a trifecta in 2028 and get shit done fast.
If we see a Biden win, a Dem House, and a 52-48 GOP Senate blocking everything… In 2026 we defend Georgia (Ossoff), Michigan (Peters), New Hampshire (Shaheen). They defend Alaska, Maine, North Carolina. We should be able to flip one of those to cut it to 51-49. In 2028 we defend Arizona, Georgia (Warnock), Nevada (Cortez Masto), New Hampshire (Hassan), Pennsylvania (Fetterman). They defend Florida after five more years of climate change, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. We can get to 50-50 or 51-49, and possibly a trifecta.
The key is, that 50 or 51 needs to be all-in on nuking the filibuster and using the narrow margin and the power we have.
Things suck in many ways, but overall the political path to possible change is about the same as it was.
As a Millennial who doesn’t own a home, I don’t expect any help from anyone, that’s been made pretty fucking clear by society and “friends” who have screwed me. My plan to not suffer immensely the rest of my life is to work 70-80 hours a week at my main job, 5-7 hours at my first side hustle, 3-5 hours at a second side hustle, and pick up occasional work from a third side hustle. I figure if I can sustain that for a year or two, I might be able to stay afloat and get far enough ahead to buy a house and have a hope of retiring someday.
I’m not looking forward to voting for Bidenomics in that scenario, but I guess that’s the only choice I’ve got since Millennials are huge pussies and we didn’t do what needed to be done to take over sooner from Boomers and save our asses.
For anyone (like me) who needs a reminder of what states are up for grabs in 13 months.
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That’s easy to say in hindsight. Literally everyone expected us to get absolutely mopped up in 2022.
The 2022 map was not worse than this one. It’s not arguable, come on.
Defending WV, MT, OH (in addition to a half dozen or so actual swing states). And the best pick up opportunities are LOL Florida and LOL Texas.
Yeah I mean we probably aren’t going to hold the Senate, but I didn’t expect to hold it in 2022. At the same time they did blow up abortion, take away millenials student loans, and 2024 Trump is the melted wax sculpture version of 2016 Trump. We’re also drawing live to Trump somehow intentionally burning it all down.
Look at the GOP side of things… That’s a huge dumpster fire. They could absolutely cough up a couple of seats they shouldn’t.
No argument with any of that. Even if the election was tomorrow, there is a ton of variance.
My takes have been off lately so ASCII shrug, but experience tells me voters flashy-thing government shutdown/debt debt ceiling shit when it’s a year out from an election. Like there was a government shutdown in 2013 lead by Theodore Cruz, whose demand was that Obama repeal his signature healthcare legislation, that obviously didn’t happen and Rs looked bad, and Rs had a pretty good 2014.
Like maybe if you hold an election in 5 weeks with no speaker and the government shutdown down, you’d get Ds taking the house, but by next november it won’t matter.
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Yeah if the election was tomorrow I think we’d be in big trouble. Just so we’re all clear lol. Right now the time is very much on our side because what’s going on right now doesn’t actually matter for the next election. How things are going 5 weeks before the next election matters, which is a good thing if you’re hoping the Democrats win. Right now stuff sucks.
The nice thing is that I’m medium sure the recession is happening right now and will probably be over by election day next year.
Yeah the government shutdown is a nothing burger unless it really drags on a record amount of time. Stuff would need to break and then stay broken long enough to form a real concrete memory.
The 2022 map wasn’t worse, but it was a midterm election in which there was an expectation of a red wave after Biden won. The 2024 map is worse but presidential year turnout could help us in a few.
However, presidential turnout hurts us badly in WV/OH/MT. Those are uniquely good candidates in terms of electoral politics in those states (even though we hate Manchin). But they’ll face a bigger uphill battle with the lack of ticket splitting in a presidential year.
I haven’t thought hard about handicapping the likelihood here, but imo we’re drawing live to…
-
No Speaker for a few more weeks, leading to an automatic shutdown (gotta be at least a 30-40% chance of this right?)
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A HFC jerkoff Speaker getting in (50-50?) and making batshit crazy demands (100%) that are a total non-starter, making the shutdown drag into 2024 and impact holiday travel
So that parlay is 15-20%?
- The official recession starting while this shit is costing us 0.1% to 0.2% of GDP growth per week we’re shutdown, making them own the recession. (75%?)
This not only forms memories that may last till the next election, it further cracks the current GOP in half and intensifies primary battles, which helps Dems in the election.
I was with you until this. No matter the cause, any recession will be pinned on Biden.
Presidents always get way to much credit for economic prosperity and way too much blame for economic decline. It’s not fair, but that is the way of things. This is known.
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So you’re saying we are witnessing the tragic death of the Republican Party?
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