Yeah, the best pickup opportunities are Texas and Florida, which, well…
A full employment recession?
No, you’re just wrong about this. During 2022 it was widely acknowledged that the Senate would be an easier hold than the House specifically because of the map. That’s not to say people thought it would be an easy hold, just that they thought it was something like a 30-40% shot to hold it vs like 5-10% to hold the House. If we had the 2024 map in 2022 the chances of holding the Senate would have been fucking zero.
The GOP could disappear overnight and Trump would still be +10 in PA. The whole country has rotted away.
I find this very hard to believe.
Fetterman won by 5 points less than a year ago. I refuse to believe that things have changed that quickly. (I know Dr Oz isn’t Trump, but still)
If Trump wins PA by double digits, just end the country.
Look I know it’s like 10 years later but whoever started that thread (might have been riverman) was right. It just took a lot longer for them to stop thrashing around and they connected with way more shit than expected in the process.
They made choices though. In the aftermath of 2012 the party did what I consider to be pretty good analysis on what they needed to do to be a viable party long term… and they did the exact opposite basically.
The GOP strategy since 2008 is 100% pure boomer shit. Short term sugar rush into fuck it we won’t be alive when it goes sideways. The sugar rush is already over and now we’re watching the smoking ruin phase.
The tragic death of the Republican party thread is, hilariously, exactly why I don’t short stocks not even Tesla.
Having a tough time reconciling that post with this comment:
I don’t give a shit about the stats. The labor force participation rate is a much better metric than the unemployment rate… and inflation/CPI should exclude everything that is an optional purchase. They want to take highly variable stuff like fuel and food out of inflation numbers, I want to take out durable goods and travel.
No matter what the stats say there is an economic cycle and we are toward the bottom of it. At least we are in trucking which is currently in the longest down market I’ve ever seen, and the second longest my brokerage has ever seen behind the '07-'09 down market. If it lasted as long as '07-'09 it would only go on another 6 months.
I think workers are going to win long term. The exception of course is tech workers because they had extremely good pay because of low interest rates and FAANG intentionally over hiring/paying to starve potential future competitors of talent. Without that tech workers will still be highly paid professionals, but you won’t see senior PM’s making 200-300k probably ever again.
But this whole ‘we’re going to pay 70% or less of what it costs to live’ thing isn’t at all sustainable. A living wage in 2023 is ~60k… and that’s if you don’t have kids.
The economy is in a deep hole, which since it’s cyclical means it’s likely going to be better next year for the election. I’m not sure that if we had the election tomorrow the GOP wouldn’t entirely fuck it up though. They probably would honestly.
I think the GOP broke all the political models when they took out abortion fwiw.
This is where I’m not so sure. Everyone single can basically be forced into having a roommate, and that’s not going to break the system. People can be blocked from home ownership and that’s not going to break the system. A married couple each making 70% of the cost to live can jointly get by and probably afford one kid.
What it’s going to cause is declining birth rates, more racist panic about replacement, and eventually extremely bad labor shortages as millennials age.
But it doesn’t have to break the system now. Labor does have some leverage right now, though, so it might be able to fight its way to more reasonable pay.
Yeah the combination of this and polarization makes everything tough to calculate. But keep in mind the GOP is still going to run on abortion, and still get the single issue pro life vote. The model they broke is turnout on the left.
Nah white middle class+ women definitely thought the pro life stuff wasn’t going to apply to them and it’s actually turned out to be quite oppressive/problematic. Trump won white women in 2016 and I think he’s going to lose them by 10%+ in 2024.
The fact that the anti abortion crazies run the GOP is actually really bad for the GOP here because they keep doing stuff like trying to block white women from leaving the state to get an abortion or get a pill mailed to them.
And I’m spotlighting white women here because that’s where the abortion issue broke politics. They tend to be exactly as racist as similar white men so white supremacy is a winning issue with them. They were fine with abortion being extremely limited for poor/brown people, but for them and their daughters/grand daughters? Yeah they’re absolutely outraged at the leopard eating their faces.
Yeah but I don’t think any of the pro lifers are in that group. Those are the people that are going to turn out more, and maybe some were swing voters but I don’t think there are that many swing voters anymore. I think the modern swing voter is vote for your side or stay home.
He also won them by 11 points in 2020. I think explains your feelings on the GOP dying.
If the GOP actually loses white women by 10+ points, that would translate to Biden getting 350+ EVs, gaining at least 2 senate seats and god knows how many in the house.
(Disclaimer: I do not believe the GOP is losing white women by 10 points. I really hope you’re right though.)
Starting to look like Jordan has a path to the Speakership this week. There were 50+ GOP nos, now it’s down to about 20. It looks like the “moderates” are going to cave to the right flank.
Of course he’s going to win. He’s a deranged nazi bigot, just like they all want.
The options have always been:
- Moderates cave
- They get Dem votes
And 1. was always winning
The thing you have to remember about white women as a group is that when something really bad happens to one of them, like a hospital denying them life saving medical care until they start actively dying because of an abortion ban, it makes the news. It spreads super well on social media. Triple points if it’s a conventionally attractive upper class white woman.
There has been plenty of coverage of the fallout of the GOP’s anti abortion insanity over the last year here in Texas. It’s amazing content in the same way that upper class white women getting murdered is amazing content. True crime as a genre exists independent of news just milking every time anything bad has ever happened to an upper class white woman it’s so good.
These policies are an ongoing and unfolding PR disaster that are doing real harm to the wrong kind of people (and of course it’s the white people). When the local hospital stops offering maternity services because they can’t staff the place somewhere like Idaho it’s the main local news story for at least a week…
And as long as these laws are on the books the stories won’t stop. The GOP got what they always wanted, but as always there are consequences.
And for the GOP I don’t actually see a way out until they get waffle crushed by it. The people they’ve elected for 30 years have mostly been pro life lunatics because of the parties dependence on single issue religious extremists… and for a lot of these elected officials the only issue they actually have any loyalty to is ending what they see as hundreds of thousands of murders per year and the slow death of the white race (lol at the idea of there being a white race but whatever). Those guys aren’t going to change directions they’re going to have to get replaced electorally like the really serious dry people got replaced before prohibition got repealed.
If they had gone with 2. every person who voted for the new speaker would have faced an ugly primary challenger.
Oz doesn’t have a fraction of Trump’s power, and even he came disturbingly close to winning PA. It’s bleak, man, people are just going to vote for the funny orange TV man from TV because he’s silly. Half of the voters in this country are in the grip of a personality cult, the economy doesn’t matter, abortion doesn’t matter, all that matters is the silly TV man.
His opponent had a stroke in the middle of the campaign and he was a rich celebrity. Dr Oz was a quite a bit better than average candidate for the GOP in 2022. He was just running in PA and the general election in 2022 was probably close to unlosable. Fetterman was a poorly dressed vegetable on the back half of the campaign and still won by 5 points.
If current fully recovered Fetterman ran against Dr. Oz tomorrow it would be a massacre lol.