Invasion of Ukraine: Why Doesn't Russia Concede Kursk and Negotiate Peace?

Several countries have sent air defense systems: HAWK, Patriot, Iris-T, Gepard, NASAMS, Aspide, SAMP/T. Maybe I am forgetting some but it’s definitely more than 2.

Yeah they certainly have been supplied an assortment of systems, but NYT front page has similar article and seems to account for western systems as well based on squinting at the graphs. Obviously could be case that some the leaked info is fake to throw off Russia

“ Stocks of missiles for Soviet-era S-300 and Buk air defense systems, which make up 89 percent of Ukraine’s protection against most fighter aircraft and some bombers, were projected to be fully depleted by May 3 and mid-April, according to one of the leaked documents. The document, which was issued on Feb. 28, based the assessment on consumption rates at the time. It is not clear if those rates have changed”

The Times published a story about a ukrainian operation to take back Zaporozh’ye Atomic Power Plant last fall, where they supposedly lost hundreds of amphibious infantry. this is a resurfaced story from back then, which was almost entirely pushed by pro-ru accounts, and which curiously did not come with more than a couple of images of an incinerated barge. It looked like an obvious fake at the time, and it is somewhat worrying that a legitimate paper is bringing it up again. in that the attack may have been real, or that legitimate news is now just publishing unsubstantiated rumors that are still tied to singular or anonymous sources.

The leaked documents apparently had been out on the discord server since jan, and only spread to 4chan and telegram in march. seems like if they were authentic, they’d attract attention quicker. But even so, to make the whole pile look authentic, the leaks are probably a mix of public info, secret docs, and doctored/fake ones. is the info still damaging now, almost 3 months later? guessing it’s less impactful than i feared.

but disinformation campaigns in preparation for AFU counter-offensive are also expected measures from both offense and defense, so i think, without solid evidence, a lot of these stories can be taken with a grain of salt.

like surely, S-300 shortage was forseeable months in advance, by both milley and zaluzhnyj. and we saw major commitments of missile defense systems to UA since last summer. they probably know what they are doing.

I know there question if these leaks are real but this is a pretty :harold: :harold: one if true

A Russian fighter jet fired a missile at a manned British surveillance aircraft flying over the Black Sea in September but the munition malfunctioned, according to U.S. defense officials and a recently leaked classified U.S. intelligence report. The incident was far more serious than originally portrayed and could have amounted to an act of war.

According to two U.S. defense officials, the Russian pilot had misinterpreted what a radar operator on the ground was saying to him and thought he had permission to fire. The pilot, who had locked on the British aircraft, fired, but the missile did not launch properly.

In October, Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, described the close call in a [briefing to Parliament members] as “potentially dangerous” after the Russian fighter jet “released a missile in the vicinity” of the British aircraft. But one of the leaked documents said the Sept. 29 event was a “near-shoot down.”

Jesus. That could have spiraled out of control quickly

I imagine this is what people would have said if the assassin missed Archduke Ferdinand.

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Crazy stuff. Who needs spies when you can just troll the internet

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Shades of

I’m sorry but post Chelsea Manning the idea that any low level 21 year old enlisted person could have access to secret diplomatic intel that could embarrass the US is entirely the fault of the people who didn’t patch that out last time.

This kid is 21 years old. The idea that he had access is ludicrous. This whole ‘if you have clearance level x you can see everything that is x level clearance’ idea is fucking idiotic. If it’s classified you shouldn’t be able to see it if it doesn’t relate directly to your job.

It’s either secret or it isn’t. These guys gave a 21 year old the keys to something expensive and dangerous and he totaled it. You can blame/punish the 21 year old all you want but this whole situation being possible is the grown ups fault 100%.

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because security in depth is hard. we still have a castle-like mindset to security. if you’re in, you have access to EVERYTHING. it sounds dumb but doing it properly is very difficult.

they should shoot him in a firing squad to send a message. not that that’s right but they have no other defense to this stuff other than fear. american intel/security is in shambles especially in the international community.

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Sounds like document handling needs a similar zero trust policy update that IT security architecture had…10 years ago?

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/security/business/zero-trust#:~:text=What%20is%20Zero%20Trust%3F,originates%20from%20an%20open%20network.

It’s not hard to justify making an example of the 21 year old, but no amount of threatening people is going to make it easy to keep secrets available to a high five figure to low six figure number of people some of whom are extremely low ranking and very young.

What happened to Manning got us to this point. I’m shocked it took this long for some moron to leak classified documents on a discord server since apparently low ranking members of the MASSACHUSETS AIR NATIONAL GUARD have access.

over a million people have top secret security clearance

and just because you have top secret clearance, does not mean that you have access to whatever you want. it is still compartmentalized and tracked. we’ll know more about the airman soon enough, but all signs point to him having some data preparation or clerking responsibilities rather than just open access to a stash of ukraine plans.

Man what an epic posting drama. Internet legend

The military is overwhelmingly staffed by young men, it’s easy to forget that 21-year-old dumbasses get handed huge responsibilities all the time. The system needs guys like that to have TS clearance just to function day to day.

The whole story is hilarious. He wasn’t even trying to be a whistleblower, he just wanted to impress his bros on a gamer discord.

all signs? we know exactly what he did - he was sitting behind a desk doing tech stuff. his title was “cyber transport systems journeyman.”

even if he doesnt have direct access to documents, legions of tech dudes like him have broad access to systems that do. the security is awful.

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if capital punishment is the consequence some dipshit edgelord on discord might think twice about leaking top secret documents for a couple of :100: reacts from his racist friends.

looooooool