the bakhmut defense is turning out to be about fixing ru forces in that direction. it is worth noting that directly in bakhmut the forces are wagner only. this is the overarching theme in ru MoD tactics. on the one hand, MoD cannot be seen as giving back bakhmut, on the other hand they won’t go into fighting like wagner.
the assault units are sent to storm practically sacrificially, first it was ldnr army and mobilized in mariupol, and now wagner in bakhmut. which means that gerasimov will hold back vdv/etc as much as possible, with regular army providing artillery fire and bomber support to help the advance. but since AFU is threatening the flanks, Ru army forces have to bring in reinforcements around it. there is evidence this is happening. units from zaporozh’e were transiting through melitopol on the way north and were hit via Ua rocket fire yesterday.
it’s worth pondering what would happen if ukraine was to surround bakhmut. MoD would not somehow retreat and save wagner units within. majority of convicts are there to die. which would make it costly for AFU to storm into the city. so it must first be cut off and russian artillery pushed back.
I wonder if it’s coincidental that the f16 talk really amplified right after patriots shown to be pretty effective against Russian weapons? Wonder if that changes the calculus both for ukr usability in some way or western risk calculations
ukrainian channels are already saying that bakhmut is about to being inside a technical pincer maneuver, the support road to bakhmut seems really flimsy and already within himars range. and according to some of the reports that was done without the counteroffensive units arriving, leaving the option that they will strike somewhere else.
it’s not a great sign that the offensive plans keep being pushed out again, even though it is the right call and caution is understandable, the issue is that chances are afu are not yet ready.
I am far from an expert, but there are some things that are definitely true. One, attacking is way harder than defending, and two, advancing in winter is much harder than when the weather is better. It is not impossible that something about Russian supplies is that much worse even for Russian line-holders in the winter, and maybe the Ukrainians come up with some other sort of advantages that make a winter advance feasible, but I would not bet on it from how the war has gone so far. I think a best case is substantial Ukranian gains until about Halloween or so.
regardless of what we all heard or think of the ru army, lots of equipment related stuff did get better for the mobiks. a large number of clothing, medical supplies, and food industries were turned on with a big infusion of money. ammunition industry as well.
i’m reading that afu at large isn’t involved, and this is a diversion to create a problem for the enemy. honestly if it confuses ru forces and causes population panic, probably worth it. additional goals may be to capture and destroy nearby ammo depots. there are pictures of some advanced weapons storage close to the mentioned town.
You thinking these guys actually trying to hold onto this land or going to flee to Ukraine. Seems hard to believe they would last long vs whatever response Russia is mobilizing
they allegedly blew up some amount of ru ammo, and forced a response. that seems like they accomplished an immediate goal. i don’t think there’s any expectation that they can occupy even a small village when russian siloviki show up.
It’s really hard to tell what’s going on in a war when things are actually happening. Fog of war is a very real thing. Even the people on the battlefield are probably having a tough time telling what is going on.