so what’s happening in ukraine now? seems like they should be rolling into crimea
Maybe, but why fight and get your soldiers killed when they’re about to collapse on their own?
It’s an interesting question tbh how to handle this. Kinda going back to this post:
Yeah I don’t think either side of this internal conflict is interested in ending the war on Ukraine’s terms and someone will win soon enough, so why waste the opportunity to change the situation on the ground?
https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1672632749944102912
https://twitter.com/breakingcraft_/status/1672634310111764480
Maybe. I’m far from some military expert so I don’t have some super firm opinion. Just to play the other side though, modern warfare relies heavily on logistics. If the rear guard is fighting each other, nothing is getting to the front. A few days or even a week of no new supplies with no new plans for them would spook anyone.
Even if the coup sudden gets worked out this week, the infighting won’t be over. There’s going to be purges and loyalty issues.
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1672630439498874880
https://twitter.com/KvotheTheArcane/status/1672542001286246404
Not really great:
The Wagner head is certainly unhappy with the war in Ukraine - calling it a “disgrace” - but not because the Russian military is wiping out entire cities and committing war crimes.
He’s critical of the army and its leadership for not fighting well enough.
Russian forces have had to retreat from territories they’d gained, and Prigozhin says army bosses are weak because they are unwilling to use tactical nuclear weapons.
But Prigozhin has also repeated Moscow’s propaganda to justify the invasion, calling people living in eastern Ukraine “genetically Russian”.
“This is a sacred war against those who offend Russian people,” he said in his recent statement.
So Prigozhin must be seen as part of the radical pro-war group in Russia who are demanding more drastic action to defeat Ukraine.
And in their view, the current leadership is unable to achieve this.
I may have to revise my take on nukes. Fuck, that’s really not good.
There are rumors from Telegram that are making their way onto Twitter that Wagner PMC has entered Moscow Oblast, leaving them about two hours from Moscow itself.
I wonder if VVP will indulge Prigozhin and try to use a “tactical” nuke to stop the march on Moscow.
ETA: Just saw cW’s update that it’s already too late for this.
This is from TASS via Google Translate, so grain of salt:
Lukashenko held talks with the head of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin, the press service of the President of Belarus reports.
A profitable and acceptable option for solving the situation has been developed, with security guarantees for PMC fighters. Negotiations between Lukashenka and Prigozhin lasted throughout the day.
The Pul Pervogo telegram channel reports that Prigozhin accepted Lukashenko’s proposal to stop the movement of Wagner PMCs and take steps to de-escalate.
I’m not going to worry now about what Prig might due in the future. A coup clearly weakens both the Russian military as well as Russia itself (at least in the short run).
No possible way this is true. Prigozhin has already gone quite a ways past the point of no return. The public statements by Putin about the mutiny basically make it impossible for this to end with both of them alive.
He takes a deal here he might as well throw himself off the next building he comes across to save time and unpleasantness.
This screams pro regime wishful thinking to me.
Also obviously Prig is a massive monster/war criminal, but there’s no conceivable way whoever follows Putin stays in Ukraine. They can exit and blame the entire shit show on the old regime. With enough backpedaling they could go back to being a fairly unpopular quasi member of the global community and the oligarchs could go back to frolicking on yachts with models in the Mediterranean by 2028.
Putin fucked up badly invading Ukraine, probably because of bad advice/intel that concealed just how badly corruption had degraded their hard power because the person giving the intel owned a 200M yacht.
The resulting invasion has been good for exactly no one and I guarantee that if Putin could snap his fingers, go back in time, and take it back he 100% would. The problem is that he can’t do that.
Edit: I take that back actually US arms manufacturers have done great.