Invasion of Ukraine: Why Doesn't Russia Concede Kursk and Negotiate Peace?

[pvn]

can someone give me the cliffs here? I caught a glimpse of the WSJ this morning at the hotel before I was released from jury duty but I’ve been on total media lockdown for a week

[LouisCyphre]

Ukraine makes slow but steady progress around Robotyne. They are close to breaching the first line of defense.

They also destroyed 4+ transport planes via drone attack on a Russian airport in Pskov

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1697629199870079004?s=20

[McTrollson]

Il-76 pilot has got to be a stressful job.

[LouisCyphre]

https://twitter.com/nik0p0l5/status/1698288539895476474?s=20

[LouisCyphre]

Bayraktar returns with a bang

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1698331819282718772?s=20

[LouisCyphre]

https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1698225386654437885?s=20

We honestly don’t mock “realists” enough for getting absolutely everything wrong about reality - especially regarding russia’s war.

I’m no academic, but we can all spot a grift as blatant as “realism”.

Realists say they just describe the world as it is - shaped by “great powers” - yet are constantly angry that the world isn’t how they’d like it to be - and that people in smaller nations actually have agency too. In a desperate attempt to prove their analysis, they’ll cheer on and collude with a so-called “great power” in the hope it can destroy international law and the rules-based order of co-operating sovereign states that is so inconvenient to their analysis.

Hence they still publish pure delusions like this, written as if it’s Ukraine that’s invading russia (at the West’s behest) and has the luxury of giving up the war. It throws out every Kremlin line in a weak attempt to discourage resistance to russia’s genocide.

Articles by realists encouraging a deal with russia that would reward its aggression always suddenly increase exponentially when russia needs to pause Ukraine’s momentum. It’s so predictable.

The obscured face on the cover of this article is an accidental reflection of how they prefer others unseen.

The article focuses in on analysing Ukraine’s counteroffensive by summarising every critical western report over recent months, alongside analysis from western realists. Out of the many people who provide their analysis in this article, there are ZERO Ukrainians asked for their perspective. Only one anonymous Ukrainian official and a tweet from Zelenskyy are quickly referenced to support her narrative.

The article has ZERO consideration for the reality of Ukrainians under russian occupation who face mass murder, mass repression, mass deportation, torture, sexual abuse and the elimination of their culture and nationhood. Lynch’s main argument means that Ukraine should settle for this - yet addressing this reality never crosses her mind.

Out of thousands of words, there is one reference to “many atrocities” from someone’s quote but in a paragraph with vaguely conspiratorial analysis of the media controlling the narrative. “Scepticism” has been “suppressed” says Lynch.

Lynch is using carefully worded atrocity denialism.

And we see through it all. We remember how bad all their past predictions were - from their mockery of people concerned about the invasion to their expectation of a swift victory for russia. Instead, we see the hubris of a “great power” and the agency of Ukrainians determined to fight for their own future.

Ironically, realists just can’t compete with reality.

I don’t think these realists are as dumb as they pretend to be. They could structure a proper argument and write a half decent article if they wanted to. They know an article analysing Ukraine should have Ukrainian perspectives (especially when using their bodies for the click bait cover). They know it would be more credible to at least address the “counter argument” about what happens when a genocidal invader is unopposed.

They choose not to because realism is - let’s get real about this - just an ideology focused on denying agency to people deemed not to live in “great powers”.

Reality is so disappointing to them.

[Surf]

@LouisCyphre

Ukraine makes slow but steady progress around Robotyne. They are close to breaching the first line of defense

Is it that Ukraine replacing the defense minister?

[LouisCyphre]

That’s definitely not good. I doubt Zelenskyy made that decision lightly in the middle of a war. Reznikov appeared to be quite capable in negotiating for Western aid and I doubt it’s about the speed of progress in the current offensive. Maybe there is something to the graft allegations. Due to international pressure Ukraine has take corruption very seriously.

[Surf]

Some article claim there was something about food supply prices months ago and he had offered to step down but Zelensky said it was a bad time then. Not sure how much of that is conjecture vs known stuff

[LouisCyphre]

Russian sausage tycoon who criticised Ukraine invasion falls to death from...

But wait there’s more:

An unnamed police official told India’s NDTV news outlet they suspected he took his own life after becoming depressed about the death of his friend who was found dead in the same hotel.

[McTrollson]

I would simply not stay at this hotel if I were an oligarch.

[pvn]

@LouisCyphre

An unnamed police official told India’s NDTV news outlet they suspected he took his own life after becoming depressed about the death of his friend who was found dead in the same hotel.

saying this with a straight face takes some impressive levels of swag

[TheDudeAbides]

hehe, sausage magnet

[commonWealth]

@McTrollson

I would simply not stay at this hotel if I were an oligarch.

First floor only, everywhere I go.

[MimosaDef]

Careful, that’s the second floor in Europe.

[LouisCyphre]

[VoteForSocialists]

[Jman220]

That seems kind of right? 1:1 losses are really bad for Ukraine.

[Surf]

@Jman220

That seems kind of right? 1:1 losses are really bad for Ukraine.

If they the ones on offensive think you would expect them to have more loses?

[LouisCyphre]

I agree in principle but we’d really need to take a deep dive into the exact numbers and types of losses. Those OSINT statistics will paint a very incomplete picture due to the fog of war. We should expect Ukrainian losses to be higher as they are attacking fortified positions.

What little I could gather:

Losses of tanks and AFV are roughly even on that front.
While Ukraine is losing more IMVs Russia is losing more artillery.

One example:
Russia loses its more modern T-80s and already has lost more (623 documented) during the war than they had active before February 2022 (~480). That means they are already depending on activating tanks from storage of which they had about 3000-5000. Most of these are older than 30 years and how many can be made combat ready again is an open question.
Ukraine lost its older T-64s/T-72s. The Leopards were merely damaged.

Ukraine cannot get into an war of attrition with Russia. Western aid is coming too slowly for that.