Invasion of Ukraine: Why Doesn't Russia Concede Kursk and Negotiate Peace?

If you were a tank guy this war is a disaster. We had tank guys to fight Russia in some future conflict. I agree the Pentagon budget is unlikely to be cut. I do think some people who were on an amazing career track are now going to get pushed out at full bird instead of getting to be generals, and I think some specific defense contractors that say made parts for the Abrams are in for a bad time. That’s the kind of stuff I’m talking about.

If your whole point was that certain companies will lose money if their products/services are less in demand I certainly would agree but you made it sound that as a whole military contractors are upset about this which I don’t think is true. There always going to be winners and losers but I don’t see defense spending being driven down by a war

I mean the heavy tank weapon system market is a huge market segment. The world spends a lot of money on tanks. They’ll without a doubt find something else to waste the money on… but no major defense contractor is going to be happy to see the US military end its 80+ year relationship with armored vehicles.

Again I just don’t see the total number of dollars paid to them going down, I seriously doubt the entire industry as a whole really has a philosophical care about what products those dollars spent on. Obviously certain companies/divisions whatever may not be happy but as a whole I don’t see the industry being hurt by a huge war

I agree, this is the first conflict of any size since the advancement of drones, we haven’t seen any kind of drone defense screens, only dumb tankers doing dumb things with tanks, and getting bombed by drones. We need to wait till the tock cycle to happen and better air defense before the idea of hardened vehicles goes away.

In the 50’s the life expectancy of a British tank driver was 36 hours if war with Russia happened. I remember hearing similar numbers for US tank crews in Germany in the 80’s. Tactics will change and we’ll stop referring to units as speed bumps for Russia’s massive army and talk about speed bumps for China’s massive army and the money will get spent.

Obviously just one sides statement but seems Ukraine less prone for obviously verifiable lies about damage than Russia saying the moskova was fine or whatever

“ Significant damage has been inflicted and we can now say that the vessels are most likely not recoverable. Yes, today there’s good news - the destruction of the large enemy landing ship “Rostov on Don” (project 775), as well as the Kalibr-carrying submarine, which is very important”

Looks like this wasn’t one of their “modern” nuclear subs but man I don’t know how Russia continues this war if they can’t defend their docks from more these kinds of attacks. Feels like a gamechanger.

I suppose this will also affect the grain deal if Russia can’t threaten cargo ships.

They’ll sell all the tanks to local police departments with the next round of stimulus

At some point an army has to take positions/trenches and for that to happen soldiers have to get there safely. Tanks have done really well in that role during this war.
We will see how well drones will fare once electronic warfare has adapted.

I always wonder why they don’t just jam the drones. I’m sure there’s a good reason, I just don’t know it.

They do and from what I’ve read it’s fairly easy with commercial drones that are broadcasting unencrypted. It’s much harder with military grade drones.

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I think they do jam a lot of them, they even have some sort of futuristic looking jamming guns

https://x.com/saintjavelin/status/1701909293631504473?s=20

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Reddit stuff claiming Ukraine destroyed another ~billion dollar air defense system in crimea last night.

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Ukrainian Neptune cruise missiles and loitering munitions hit the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system near Yevpatoria.

This was told by representatives of the Secret Services of Ukraine to the journalists of Ukrainska Pravda website.

According to them, at first the SSU drones hit the “eyes” of the system – radars and antennas. And after the failure of the radar, Navy units with two Neptune cruise missiles struck the launchers of the S-300/S-400 Triumph SAM.

Paging General Haig, General Haig please pick up the white courtesy phone

Actual slides I used in a global conference presentation in 2021:

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Both sides fighting this war still really want tanks, there’s more of a focus on combined arms and drones though.

It is pretty trivial to modify a commercial drone to frequency hop its communications and impossible to jam all frequencies a drone can use. You might be able to slow it down a little but it won’t fall out of the sky when its connection is interrupted for a short time.